‌تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر حجم و دبی پیک سیلاب (مطالعۀ موردی: زیرحوضۀ قران تالار)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‏ آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، گروه آب و خاک، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود‌

2 استادیار گروه آب و خاک، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود‌

3 دانشیار گروه آب و محیط ‏زیست، دانشکدۀ عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود‌

چکیده

تغییر خصوصیات رواناب به دلیل تغییر اقلیم، از اصلی‏ترین نگرانی‏های حال حاضر در برنامه‏ریزی طولانی‏مدت منابع آب و حفاظت از سیلاب است. از این‏رو، بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر هیدرولوژی و منابع آب اهمیت زیادی دارد. بنابراین، در این تحقیق تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر خصوصیات رواناب حوضۀ آبریز قران تالار مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به این‌منظور، از 22 مدل AOGCM و دو سناریوی انتشار گازهای گلخانه‏ای (RCP4.5 وRCP8.5 ) برای تولید سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم استفاده شد. سری زمانی بارش روزانه برای دو دورۀ آتی (2099-2070 و 2021-2050) تحت سه سطح احتمالاتی (50/0، 75/0 و 90/0) محاسبه شد. سپس، بارش طرح با دورۀ بازگشت‏های 2 تا 500 سال برای دورۀ گذشته و دوره‏های آتی تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد در دوره‏های آتی، در ماه‏های سرد سال، افزایش بارش و در ماه‏های گرم سال کاهش بارش را شاهد خواهیم بود. همچنین، خروجی مدل WMS مشخص کرد که در شرایط تغییر اقلیم (بسته به سناریو) مقدار دبی و حجم سیلاب برای باران طرح با دورۀ بازگشت‏های مختلف، حدود 35 تا 110 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. میانگین‏گیری از نتایج دبی طرح با دورۀ ‏بازگشت‏های مختلف نشان داد در سطح احتمال 5/0، دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای هر دو دورۀ آتی افزایش حدود 30 درصدی دبی اوج و حجم سیلاب را برآورد می‏کنند و در سطح احتمال 75/0 و 90/0برای دورۀ آتی 2021-2050، هر دو سناریوی انتشار نتایج یکسانی دارند، اما طی دورۀ 2070-2099، مقدار افزایش دبی اوج در سناریوی RCP8.5 در مقایسه با RCP4.5 بیشتر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of climate change on floods volume and peak discharge (Case Study: Qaran Talar sub-catchmaent)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Toktam Imani 1
  • Mahdi Dalghandi 2
  • Samad Emamgholizadeh 3
  • zahra Ganji -noroozi 2
1 Shahrood University of Technology
3 Shahrood University of Technology
چکیده [English]

Changes in runoff properties due to climate change are currently one of the main concerns in long term planning of water resources and float protection. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources. Therefore, in this research impacts of climate change on runoff properties of Qaran Talar sub-catchment were evaluated. For this purpose, 22 AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCp4.5 and RCP8.5) are used for the generation of climate change scenarios. Daily precipitation time series under 3 probability levels (0.50, 0.75, and 0.90) were generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099), and afterward design precipitation for 2 to 500-year return periods was determined for baseline and future periods. Results showed that in the future periods, in the cold and warm months of the year, we will expect an increase and decrease in rainfall, respectively. Outputs of WMS model indicated that under climate change conditions, the amount of peak discharge and the volume of floods for design rainfall of different return periods will increase by 35 to 110 percent. It was also found that at the probability level of 0.5, the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in both future periods estimate a 30% increase in peak discharge and flood volume. at the probability level of 0.75 and 0.90 during 2021-2050, both emission scenarios indicated the same results, but the amount of peak discharge increase in the period of 2099-2070 under RCP8.5 is higher compared to RCP4.5.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • emission scenarios
  • flood
  • uncertainty

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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 9، شماره 1
فروردین 1401
صفحه 259-272

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 01 آبان 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 اسفند 1400

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