نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
1 پژوهشگر پسادکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، برنامۀ همکاری مشترک دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره) و دانشگاه واخنینگن هلند
2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین
3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه واخنینگن، هلند
عنوان مقاله [English]
Climate change is one of the ongoing challenges. This phenomenon will affect all parts of the world, including Iran. Therefore, understanding and projecting climate change can be a way forward for future planning in different areas. To do this, the present study applied six general circulation models (GCM) to assess climate change in some stations in northwest, west and southwest of Iran under three different scenarios: RCP2.6 (optimistic), RCP4.5 (middle) and RCP8.5 (Pessimistic) by using LARS-WG during 2021-2100. Based on the results, the highest values were observed under the RCP8.5 scenario and in NorESM1.1, CanESM2 and HadGEM2-ES GCMs for sunhours, and minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. Compared to the base period: The highest increase in minimum and maximum temperatures have been observed in Aligudarz station during 2081-2100 with 69% and 25%, respectively. Daily average rainfall and Sun hours might enhance 35.4% in Ahvaz during the years 2061-2080 and 9.8% in Parsabad during the years 2041-2060. On the other hand, the lowest daily values compared to the base period were observed in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios in Ahvaz, with a 0.23% decrease in minimum temperature and a 2.93% increase in maximum temperature. Also, compared to the base periods, the daily average precipitation in Parsabad has decreased by 8.63 % and sun hours in Mianeh have reduced to 14.54%. In general, the southwest may experience more precipitation compared to the northwest in the future.