ارزیابی احتمال خطر خشکسالی کشاورزی با استفاده از تئوری انتشار (مطالعۀ موردی: دشت‌های شازند، خمین و ساوه)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط‏ زیست، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران‌

چکیده

بر اساس مدل‏های گرمایش جهانی، ایران (به‏ویژه دشت‏های فلات مرکزی) با کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما مواجه بوده، که منجر به اثرات منفی بر کشاورزی و پایداری محیط ‏زیست به‏ دلیل خشکسالی شده است. در این تحقیق از یک مدل تخمین احتمال ریسک خشکسالی مبتنی بر تئوری انتشار اطلاعات برای ارزیابی احتمال خشکسالی کشاورزی در دشت‏های شازند، خمین و ساوه استفاده شده است. بر اساس آمار کشاورزی و داده‏های هواشناسی، سه بعد در نظر گرفته شد: حساسیت محیط‏های مستعد بلایا، ریسک‏پذیری و بدنۀ ریسک. سه شاخص آسیب‏پذیری خشکسالی، درصد ناهنجاری بارش و نرخ فاجعه برای ارزیابی احتمال ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی انتخاب شد. یافته‏های تحقیق نشان داد نتایج ارزیابی ریسک به‏دست‏آمده از دیدگاه‏های محیط مستعد بلایا، مخاطرات و بدنه دربرگیرندۀ ریسک بسیار زیاد است. از ‏نظر حساسیت محیط مستعد بلایا، آسیب‏پذیری خشکسالی در دشت‏های یادشده بین حساسیت‏های شدید و بسیار شدید متمرکز شده است که از 6/0 تا 9/0 متغیر است. از نظر خطرناک بودن ریسک، دشت‏ها با ریسک خشکسالی بسیار زیاد مواجه هستند. از دیدگاه مخاطره‏آمیز بودن ریسک نیز نرخ بلای خشکسالی در این دشت‏ها به ‏طور کلی بیشتر از 5/0 است که احتمال ریسک مربوط به آن به‏ترتیب در دشت‏های شازند، خمین و ساوه، هر 8/4، 2/3 و 2/1 سال یک‏بار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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دوره 10، شماره 3
مهر 1402
صفحه 301-319
  • تاریخ دریافت: 27 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 22 خرداد 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 27 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 21 آذر 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 21 آذر 1402