کارایی مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS در شبیه‌سازی فرایند بارش‌ـ رواناب در آبخیزهای بالادست شهر گنبد

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

3 گروه مدیریت مناطق بیابانی، دانشکدۀ مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

4 گروه منابع طبیعی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی و عضو پژوهشکدۀ مدیریت آب، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

10.22059/ije.2023.359860.1734

چکیده

وقوع رخدادهای سیل بزرگ مانند سیل 27 اسفند 1397 در شهر گنبد به‏ طور معمول با خسارت‏های اجتماعی‌ـ اقتصادی و اکولوژیک همراه است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شبیه‏سازی جریان سیل با مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS و ارزیابی عملکرد آن در خروجی آبخیز ارازکوسه مشرف به شهر گنبد و زیرحوضه‏های بالادست آن (آبخیزهای مینودشت و نوده ‏خاندوز) است. مدل HEC-HMS با روش‏های شمارۀ منحنی SCS، هیدروگراف واحد SCS و ماسکینگام کانژ اجرا شد. پارامترهای شمارۀ منحنی، تلفات اولیه، زمان تأخیر و ضریب زبری مانینگ برای ایستگاه‏های ارازکوسه، لزوره و نوده واسنجی شد. سپس، از میانگین پارامترهای واسنجی‌شده، برای اعتبارسنجی مدل در ایستگاه‏های مورد بررسی استفاده شد. نتایج آزمون حساسیت پارامترهای ورودی نشان می‏دهد پارامتر شمارۀ منحنی بیشترین تأثیر را روی عملکرد مدل دارد. شکل هیدروگراف‏های شبیه‏سازی‌شده در مرحلۀ اعتبارسنجی نشان می‏دهد مدل در برآورد مؤلفۀ دبی اوج برای ایستگاه ارازکوسه دارای کم‏تخمینی است. در حالی ‏که شاخص‏های آماری NSE، R2 و KGE برای رویدادهای اعتبارسنجی برای ایستگاه ارازکوسه به‏ترتیب برابر با 81/0، 89/0 و 67/0، برای ایستگاه نوده‏ به‏ترتیب برابر با 85/0، 91/0 و 74/0 و برای ایستگاه لزوره به‏ترتیب برابر 62/0، 72/0 و 61/0 به دست آمد که عملکرد قابل قبول مدل را نشان می‌دهد. با توجه به عملکرد مدل HEC-HMS در شبیه‏سازی هیدروگراف جریان برای آبخیز ارازکوسه و آبخیزهای بالادست آن (مینودشت و نوده‏ خاندوز)، می‏توان از مدل برای پیش‏بینی اثرات هیدرولوژیک اعمال سناریوهای مختلف کاهش ریسک سیل در آبخیزهای بالادست شهر گنبد استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The HEC-HMS hydrological model performance in the rainfall-runoff process simulation for the upstream watersheds of Gonbad, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahnaz Mirzaei 1
  • Amir Sadoddin 2
  • Abdolreza Bahremand 2
  • Majid Ownegh 3
  • Raoof Mostafazadeh 4
1 Watershed ‎Management Science and Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Iran
2 Department of Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Iran
3 Department of Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Iran
4 Department of Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran
چکیده [English]

Large flood events occurrence such as the 18 March 2019 flood event in the city of Gonbad in Golestan Province has been often associated with socioeconomic and ecologic damages. The aim of this research is to simulate flood hydrograph using the HEC-HMS hydrological model and to evaluate model performance at the Arazkuseh Watershed outlet, located in the vicinity of Gonbad, and also for the upstream tributaries namely the Minodasht and the Nodeh Khandooz Watersheds. The HEC-HMS model was run by applying the SCS-Curve Number, the SCS-Unit Hydrograph, and the Muskingum-Cunge methods. The parameters of CN, initial abstraction, lag time, and the Manning's roughness coefficient were calibrated for the river gauge stations. The averaged calibrated parameters were used to validate the model at the gauge stations. The sensitivity analysis indicates that CN has the greatest influence on the model performance. The shapes of the simulated hydrographs in the validation stage show that the model underestimates the peak flows for the Arazkuseh Station. Whereas, the statistical indices of NSE, R2 and KGE for the validated hydrographs at the Arazkuseh Station were 0.81, 0.89 and 0.67, for the Nodeh Station were 0.85, 0.91 and 0.74, and for the Lazoreh Station identified as 0.62, 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. The analysis indicates the acceptable performance of the model. Considering the performance of the HEC-HMS model for the Arazkuseh Watershed and its upstream tributaries, the model can be used to predict the hydrological impacts of applying flood risk reduction scenarios in the upstream watersheds of Gonbad.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrological impacts
  • Flood hazard
  • The Muskingum-Cunge flood routing method
  • HEC-HMS
  • The Arazkuseh Watershed

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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 10، شماره 3
مهر 1402
صفحه 355-377

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 22 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 22 خرداد 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 27 تیر 1402

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