بررسی کارایی توابع انتقالی مبتنی بر روش‌های یادگیری ماشین برای پیش‌بینی تبخیر و تعرق مرجع (مطالعۀ موردی: بوشهر)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ آب و خاک، دانشگاه زابل

2 دانش ‏آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ آب و خاک، دانشگاه زابل

10.22059/ije.2023.368738.1775

چکیده

محاسبۀ دقیق تبخیر‌ـ تعرق مرجع یکی از گام‏های اساسی برای رسیدن به مدیریت بهینۀ منابع آب است. در اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ تبخیر‌ـ‌ تعرق مرجع بوشهر به روش فائو‌‌ـ پنمن‌ـ‌ مانتیث محاسبه شد. سپس، از روش‏های روش‏های دمایی (هارگریوز‌ سامانی و بلانی‌ کریدل) و روش‏های تشعشعی (مک‏کینگ اصلاح‌شده، تورک و پرستلی‏تیلور) نیز برای محاسبۀ تبخیرـ‌ تعرق استفاده شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از این روش‏ها با روش ترکیبی فائو‌ـ‌ پنمن‌ـ‌ مانتیث مقایسه شد. نتایج نشان داد از بین دو روش دمایی روش هرگریوز‌ سامانی و از بین روش‏های تشعشعی روش پرستلی‏تیلور نتایج نزدیک‏تری به روش ترکیبی فائو‌‌ـ پنمن‌ـ‌ مانتیث داشتند. از ﻣﺪلﻫﺎى هوش مصنوعی، ﻣﺪل ماشین بردار پشتیبان، جنگل تصادفی و کیوبیست نیز ﺑﺮاى ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ تبخیر‌‌ـ تعرق مرجع اﺳﺘﻔﺎده شد. دادهﻫﺎى ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺎﻣﻞ دمای حداقل، حداکثر و متوسط، رطوبت نسبی، ساعت آفتابی و سرعت باد ﻃﻰ ﻳﻚ دورۀ آﻣﺎرى سی‌ساله از سال 1370 ﺗﺎ 1400 بود. ﺑﺮاى ﺑﺮرﺳﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺪل‏های یادشده از ﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻫﺎى ارزﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻣﺠﺬور ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻴﮕﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺧﻄﺎ، میانگین مطلق خطا و ﺿﺮﻳﺐ تبیین R2 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. نتایج نشان داد هر سه مدل دقت زیادی در شبیه‏سازی تبخیر‌ـ‌ تعرق داشتند. مدل کیوبیست با داشتن R2 بالاتری (95/0)، کمترین مجذور میانگین خطا (87/0) و کمترین میانگین مطلق خطا (38/0) به ‏عنوان روش برتر برای تبخیر‌ـ‌ تعرق انتخاب شد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effectiveness of transfer functions based on machine learning methods for predicting reference evaporation and transpiration (Case study: Bushehr)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Halimeh Piri 1
  • Mojtaba Mobaraki 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, University of Zabol. Zabol, Iran
2 Graduate student, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, University of Zabol. Zabol, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accurate calculation of reference evapotranspiration is one of the basic tasks to achieve optimal management of water resources. In this research, the evapotranspiration of Bushehr reference was calculated by the Fau‌ Penman‌ Mantis method. Then, temperature methods (Hargreaves‌ Samani and Blaney‌ Cridle) and radiation methods (modified Mc‌ King, Tork and Prestley‌ Taylor) were also used to calculate evaporation‌ transpiration. The results obtained from these methods were compared with the combined Fau‌ Penman‌ Mantis method. The results showed that among the two temperature methods, the Hargreaves‌ Samani method and among the radiation methods, the Prestley‌ Taylor method had closer results to the combined Fau‌ Penman‌ Mantis method. Artificial intelligence, support vector machine, random forest and cubist models were also used to estimate reference evaporation‌ transpiration. The data used included minimum, maximum and average temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hour and wind speed during a thirty‌ year statistical period from 1370 to 1400. In order to check the results of the mentioned models, the standard evaluation criteria of error mean square, absolute mean error and R2 explanation coefficient were used. The results showed that all three models were highly accurate in simulating evaporation‌ transpiration. Cubist model with higher R2 (0.95), the lowest mean squared error (0.87) and the lowest absolute mean error (0.38) was chosen as the best method for evaporation‌ transpiration.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • cubist model
  • random forest
  • step by step regression
  • support vector machine

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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 10، شماره 3
مهر 1402
صفحه 421-434

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 01 آبان 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 01 آذر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 15 آذر 1402

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