بررسی و ارزیابی تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای هیدرو‌اقلیمی حوضۀ سد اکباتان (استان همدان)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا اقلیم‏شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران

2 استاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران، ایران

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم یکی از عوامل مهمی است که بخش‏های مختلف زندگی انسان روی کرۀ زمین را تحت تأثیر قرار خواهد داد و تأثیرات زیان‌باری بر منابع زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی اجتماعی و به‌ویژه منابع آب، با تغییر در بارندگی، مقدار و زمان وقوع رواناب خواهد داشت. یکی از راهکارهای کاهش تأثیرات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم، ارزیابی تأثیرات آن بر ‌بارندگی، دما و رواناب در هر منطقه است. در این تحقیق عدم قطعیت تأثیرات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم بر دما، بارندگی و رواناب در حوضۀ آبخیز سد اکباتان با استفاده از مقایسۀ مدل‌های HadCM3‏MPEH5, وIPCM4  تحت دو سناریوی A2 و B1 برای دورۀ 2045- 2065 ارزیابی شده است. بنابراین، ابتدا کارایی مدل LARS-WG برای ریزمقیاس‌نمایی متغیرهای بارش و دما تعیین و سپس مدل هیدرولوژیکی IHACRES به‌منظور شبیه‏سازی رواناب بررسی شد. در نهایت، اطلاعات ماهانۀ بارندگی، دما و رواناب برای دورۀ 2045‌ـ 2065 نسبت به دورۀ پایۀ 1983‌ـ 2010 بررسی شدند. نتایج نشان می‌د‌هد میزان دمای متوسط سالانۀ دورۀ 2045‌ـ 2065 طبق سناریوی A2، 12/2 و B1، 12/1 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد افزایش و میزان بارندگی طبق سناریوی A2، 1/6- و B1، 4/1- درصد کاهش می‏یابد. همچنین طبق سناریوی A2 میزان رواناب 2/17- درصد و B1، 19/4- درصد کاهش می‏یابد. با در‌نظر‌گرفتن عدم قطعیت مدل‏های اقلیمی تحت دو سناریوی A2 و B1 مقدار دما‌ی حوضه افزایش و بارندگی کاهش می‏یابد و این تغییرات تأثیرات منفی زیادی بر رواناب حوضه خواهد داشت.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-Climatic Parameters in the Dam Basin of Ekbatan, Hamedan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hadi Nazaripouya 1
  • Parviz Kardavany 2
  • Abdol Reza Farajy Rad 2
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the most important factors that will affect different parts of human life on earth and will be adverse effects on environmental resources, economic, social and especially water resources, with changes in rainfall and timing of runoff amount.One of the strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change is to assess its effects on precipitation, temperature and runoff in each region.In this reaserch, assessing uncertainty of climate change models; ‏MPEH5, HadCM3 and IPCM4 for 2045-2065 period under two scenarios and affects on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the basin Ekbatan, Hamedan. So first determine efficiency LARS-WG model for downscaling of temperature and precipitation variables then assessing IHACRES hydrological model to simulate the runoff. Finally the monthly rainfall, temperature and runoff data were analyzed for the period 2065-2045 compared to base period 2010-1983. The results show that the annual mean temperature increase in 2065-2045 period under the scenario A2, 2/12 and B1, 1/12 ° C and annual rainfall decreases under the scenario A2, -6/1 and B 1, -1/4 percent. In addition, runoff decreases under the A2 scenario -17/2% and B1, -4/19 percent. In view of the uncertainty of climate models under two scenarios A2 and B1 increase temperature and decreases rainfall in the basin and These changes will have negative effects on amount of runoff in the basin.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • LARS-WG
  • Runoff
  • uncertainty
  • IHACRES
  • climate change
 
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