بررسی و پیش‏ بینی دبی رودخانه‏ های قزل ‏اوزن و شاهرود

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی، مهندسی آب، دانشگاه گیلان

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب دانشکدۀ علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

4 کارشناس ارشد شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‏ ای گیلان

چکیده

هدف مطالعۀ حاضر بررسی میزان تغییرات دبی دو رودخانۀ شاهرود و قزل‏اوزن در راستای تولید پایدار برنج در استان گیلان است. برای رسیدن به این هدف از 4 آزمون تحلیل روند شامل سن، من‏کندال، رگرسیون خطی و اس‍پیرمن استفاده ‏شد. برای انجام این تحقیق از داده‏های دبی رودخانه به‌ترتیب 49 و 37 سالۀ رودخانه‌های قزل‏اوزن و شاهرود استفاده شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از همۀ آزمون‏‏ها در دوره‏های فصلی و سالانه مشابه بود. نتایج همۀ آزمون‏ها کاهش معنادار دبی رودخانه‌های قزل‏‏اوزن و شاهرود را نشان داد. همچنین برای دوره‏‏های ماهیانه از دو آزمون من‏کندال و اسپیرمن استفاده ‏شد که در این دوره نیز هر دو آزمون نتایج مشابهی نشان دادند که بیانگر کاهش دبی در طول دوره بود. در هر دو رودخانه در طول دوره به‌طور سالیانه میزان دبی از سال نخست تا سال ‏آخر بررسی‌شده به‌میزان 60 درصد کاهش داشته ‏است.‍ در این مطالعه تغییرات بارندگی و دمایی در استان نیز بررسی شد و نتایج نشان داد میزان بارندگی به‌طور معناداری کاهش و میزان دما افزایش یافته ‏است. از نتایج این پژوهش می‏توان در پیش‏بینی خشکسالی‏های آتی، برنامه‏ریزی آبیاری و مدیریت به‌هم‌پیوستۀ منابع آب منطقه استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment and prediction of Qezelozan and Shahroud Rivers discharge

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Babaei-Moghadam1 1
  • Mohammad Reza Khaledian 2
  • Ali Shahnazar 3
  • Mohamad Reza Mortezapour 4
1 Department of Water Engineering, University of Guilan, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty ofAgricultural, University of Guilan, Iran
3 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Sari, Iran
4 Regional Water Company of Guilan
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study was the analysis of discharge variations of two rivers i.e. Qezelozan and Shahroud, regarding the sustainable rice production in Guilan province. To achieve this purpose four trend analysis tests including Sen, Mann-Kendall, linear regression and Spearman were used. In this study, river discharge data of 49 and 37 years for respectively Qezelozan and Shahroud Rivers were used. The results of all tests in quarterly and annual periods were similar. The results of all tests showed a significant decrease in river discharge of Qezelozan and Shahroud. Furthermore, for monthly periods the Man-Kendall and the Spearman tests were used that during the periods both tests showed similar results i.e. reducing discharge during the studied periods. In both rivers, the annual river discharge was reducing by 60% from the first year to the last year of the study period. In this study, the changes in both precipitation and temperature were also investigated; the results showed a significant reduction in the amount of rainfall and a significant increase in the temperature. The results of this research could be used in predicting future drought, irrigation planning and management of integrated water resources.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sen
  • Man-Kendall
  • Regression
  • Spearman
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