مطالعۀ اثر تغییرات بارش بر میزان آبدهی رودخانۀ درکه طی سال‏های 1368‌ـ 1391

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی محیط زیست‌ـ منابع آب، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار دانشکدۀ محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار دانشکدۀ محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

بارش و دبی جریان از مهم‌ترین پارامترهای اقلیمی و هیدرولوژیکی هستند که بررسی و شناسایی رفتار آنها در مدیریت منابع آب اهمیت زیادی دارد. از مناسب‏ترین روش‏های موجود برای ارزیابی شرایط هیدروکلیماتولوژی در حوضه‏های آبریز، تحلیل روند است که به‌منظور بررسی تغییرات یک متغیر در طول زمان استفاده می‌شود. تحقیق حاضر در دو بخش انجام شده است که در بخش اول به بررسی اثر تغییرات بارش بر دبی رودخانۀ درکه طی سال‏های 1368‌ـ 1391 می‌پردازد. بدین‌منظور از داده‏های بارش ماهانۀ ثبت‌شده در ایستگاه هفت‏حوض‌ـ درکه استفاده شده و آزمون‏هایی مثل روش گرافیکی من‌ـ کندال و رگرسیون خطی به‏کار گرفته شده است. همچنین ناهنجاری‏های بارش و آبدهی رودخانه طی دورۀ 24 سالۀ مطالعه‌شده بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان‏ می‌دهد سری زمانی بارش در حوضۀ درکه روندی مثبت و ‌افزایشی داشته، هر چند این روند معنادار نیست. آبدهی رودخانه نیز در دورۀ بررسی‌شده با شیب بسیار اندکی افزایش یافته است و روند ندارد. در‌مجموع، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که به‌جز برخی بازه‏های زمانی خاص، افزایش و کاهش بارش و دبی همسو نبوده است. بخش دوم به پیش‌بینی بارش آیندۀ حوضه با استفاده از مدل اقلیمی MRI-CGCM2.3.2a تحت سناریوی انتشار A1B در سه افق زمانی 2030، 2060، و 2090 می‏پردازد. نتایج در‌مجموع نشان از کاهش مقدار بارش حوضه در دورۀ آتی دارد.
 
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A study of the effect of rainfall variability on Darakeh river flow rate during 1989-2012

نویسندگان [English]

  • Negin Binesh 1
  • Mohamad Hosein Niksokhan 2
  • Amin Sarang 3
چکیده [English]

Rainfall and flow rate are of the most important climatic and hydrologic parameters whose investigation and determination of their behavior are of great importance in water resources management. One of the most suitable methods available for assessment of hydro-climatological conditions in the watershed is trend analysis which is used to examine the changes of a variable during time. Current study has been implemented in two parts. The first part of the study investigates the effect of rainfall changes on Darakeh river flow rate between 1989- 2012. To do this, monthly recorded data of rainfall from Haft Howz station (on Darakeh river) and methods such as graphical Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests were used. In addition, rainfall and river discharge anomalies were examined during the 24-year period. The results indicates that rainfall time series in Darakeh watershed has a positive and rising trend, though this trend is not significant. Also river flow rate increases with a slight slope during the studied time period and doesn’t show a significant trend. Totally it can be concluded that except for some particular time periods, increase and decrease in the amount of rainfall and river flow rate has not been concordant. The second part predicts the future rainfall in the catchment using MRI-CGCM2.3.2a under A1B emission scenario for three time horizons (2030, 2060, and 2090). The overall results are representative of reduction in rainfall in Darake river basin in the future.
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall prediction
  • river flow rate
  • Mann-Kendall
  • linear regression
  • climate model
 
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