تحلیل خشکسالی‏ های شمال شرق ایران با استفاده از شاخص کمبود توأم (JDI)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهرکرد*

2 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

3 کارشناس ارشد هیدروژئولوژی، شرکت آب منطقه ‏ای استان آذربایجان غربی

4 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند

چکیده

پایش و پیش‏بینی خشکسالی‏ها، به‌ویژه تعیین دقیق زمان شروع و تداوم آن، اهمیت ویژه‏ای در مدیریت منابع آبی و برنامه‏ریزی برای کاهش تأثیرات مخرب خشکسالی دارد. در این مطالعه خشکسالی‏های منطقۀ شمال شرق ایران با استفاده از شاخص کمبود توأم (JDI) ارزیابی شد. داده‏های بارش ماهانۀ شش ایستگاه سینوپتیک تربت حیدریه، سبزوار، سمنان، شاهرود، گرگان و مشهد، در دورۀ آماری 1971‌ـ 2011، برای محاسبۀ شاخص JDI ‌استفاده شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان داد در سال‏های اخیر تعداد ماه‏های خشک در منطقۀ مطالعه‌شده (به‌ویژه در مناطق مرطوب) به‌شدت افزایش یافته است، به‌طوری که در همۀ ایستگاه‏ها (به‌جز سمنان) درصد ماه‏های خشک به بیش از 50 درصد در 10 سال اخیر (2002‌ـ 2011) رسیده است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد شاخص JDI علاوه بر توصیف علمی وضعیت کلی خشکسالی، قابلیت مشخص‌کردن زمان شروع خشکسالی‏ها و نیز خشکسالی‏های طولانی‌مدت را دارد و امکان ارزیابی وضعیت خشکسالی را به‌صورت ماه به ماه فراهم می‏سازد.
 



 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Droughts analysis in the Northeast of Iran using Joint Deficit Index (JDI)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Rasoul Mirabbasi Najaf Abadi 1
  • Farshad Ahmadi 2
  • Meisam Ashuri 3
  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi 4
1 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
2 PhD Candidate of Water Resources Engineering, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran
3 MSc. Graduate, West Azarbaijan Regional Water Authority, Urmia, Iran
4 PhD Candidate of Water Resources Engineering, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran
چکیده [English]

Monitoring and prediction of droughts, especially accurate determination of its start time and duration, is very important in water resources management and planning drought mitigation strategies. In this study, drought conditions in the Northeast of Iran was evaluated by means of Joint Deficit Index (JDI). Monthly precipitation data from 6 synoptic stations including Torbat Heydariyeh, Sabzevar, Semnan, Shahroud, Gorgan and Mashhad during the period of 1971 to 2011 were used for calculating the JDI index. Results showed that in recent years the number of dry months across study area (especially at wet regions) increased, significantly. As in all of considered stations (except Semnan station), the percentage of dry months increased to over (more than) 50% over the past 10 years (2002-2011). Results showed that the JDI provides a comprehensive assessment of droughts and it is capable of reflecting both emerging and prolonged droughts in an accurate manner and allows for a month-by-month drought assessment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Copula Functions
  • Drought
  • Joint Deficit Index
  • empirical copula
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