استفاده از برنامه‏ ریزی خطی بازه ‏ای تعاملی برای تخصیص بهینۀ آب و سطح کشت با توجه به محتوای آب مجازی و فاکتورهای اقتصادی‌ـ اجتماعی (مطالعۀ موردی: دشت درودزن‌ـ کربال)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری گرایش آب، دانشگاه هرمزگان

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شیراز

4 استاد، دانشکدۀ محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

یکی از مسائل اساسی در برنامه‏ریزی کاربردی برای منابع آب، وجود فاکتورهای غیرقطعی است. یکی از رویکردها برای تصمیم‏گیری در چنین شرایطی، برنامه‏ریزی بازه‏ای است. هدف از این مطالعه توسعۀ نوعی مدل بهینه‏سازی تعاملی برای تخصیص آب و سطح کشت است. مدل توسعه‏یافته شامل چهار هدف در‌برگیرندۀ فاکتورهای اقتصادی‌ـ اجتماعی، محتوای آب مجازی محصولات و تأمین نیاز آبی محیط ‏زیست است. برای حل مدل، چهار سناریو (فرض) برای سطوح کشت در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد با افزایش آستانۀ رضایت محدودیت‏ها، مقدار آب تخصیص داده‌شده به هر یک از آب‏بران کاهش یافته است به‌طوری که از سطح رضایت 65/0 تا سطح رضایت کامل، مدل فقط کمترین حجم آب در نظر گرفته‌شده برای تأمین نیازهای محیط زیست (40 میلیون مترمکعب) را اختصاص می‏دهد. براساس سناریوهای حل در نظر گرفته‌شده، مدل بیشترین سطح کشت در بین محصولات شتوی را به گندم و بیشترین سطح کشت در بین محصولات صیفی را به ذرت اختصاص داده است. نتایج حل مدل در غیاب حد بالا برای سطوح زیر کشت نشان داد بیشترین اختلاف بین سطح کشت بهینه و بیشترین سطح کشت اتفاق‌افتاده، متعلق به برنج به‌ترتیب با 2777 و 6/5821 هکتار برای مناطق درودزن و کربال بوده است. از قوت‌های مدل توسعه داده‌شده در این پژوهش، خطی‌بودن و توانایی آن در مواجهه با پارامترهای غیرقطعی است. خروجی‏های این مدل اطلاعات لازم برای ارزیابی ریسک و قابل اتکایی گزینه‏های برنامه‏ریزی تخصیص آب را فراهم می‏کند.
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of interactive interval linear programming for optimal water and crop area allocation considering virtual water content and socio-economic factors (Case study: Dorudzan-Korbal Plain)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Reza Nafarzadegan 1
  • Hassan Vagharfard 2
  • Mohammad reza Nikoo 3
  • Ahmad Nohegar 4
1 PhD Candidate in Watershed Sciences & Engineering, Hormozgan University, Bandar-Abbas, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Watershed Sciences & Engineering, Hormozgan University, Bandar-Abbas, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
4 Professor, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

One of the key issues in the practical planning for water resources is the existence of uncertain factors. One of the approaches for decision making under such circumstances is interval programming. The current study aims to develop an interactive optimization model for water and crop area allocation. The developed model consists of four objectives that take into account socio-economic factors, the virtual water content of crops, and meeting environmental water requirements. For solving the model, four crop area scenarios (assumptions) were considered. Results showed that by raising the level of satisfaction threshold on the constraints, the amount of water allocated to each water user is declined. So that from the satisfaction level of 0.65 to the level of complete satisfaction, the model allocates only the minimum amount of water (40 MCM) to meet the environmental water needs. Based on considered scenarios for solving the model, the largest cultivation areas are allocated to wheat and maize for autumn and spring cultivations, respectively. Solving the model in the absence of upper bound for crop areas revealed that the greatest difference between optimal crop area and the highest cultivation area belong to rice with 2777 and 5821.6 hectares in Dorudzan and Korbal districts, respectively. The main advantage of the developed model in the present study is the linear formulation as well as its ability to deal with uncertain parameters. Outcomes of the model provide information required for the assessment of risk and reliability of planning options for water allocation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Productivity
  • Optimization
  • environmental water demand
  • uncertainty

مراجع

منابع

 
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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 4، شماره 2
تیر 1396
صفحه 601-613

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 آذر 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 09 اسفند 1395
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 25 اسفند 1395

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