مدل سازی تغییرات مکانی آب معادل برف بر اساس عوامل توپوگرافی و اقلیمی (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز سهرورد استان زنجان)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان

4 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان

چکیده

داشتن اطلاعات در زمینۀ عمق، چگالی و آب معادل برف برای مدیریت منابع آب در مناطق کوهستانی اجتناب‏ناپذیر است. از طرفی، به‌دلیل مسائل مالی، شرایط اقلیمی نامساعد و صعب‏العبور‌بودن مناطق کوهستانی، اندازه‏گیری‌ها نقطه‌ای است که تعمیم آن به سطوح بزرگ خطای زیادی دارد. یکی از روش‌ها برای پیش‌بینی آب معادل برف، بررسی ارتباط بین آب معادل برف با عوامل مؤثر است. بدین‌منظور حوضۀ آبخیز کوهستانی سهرورد استان زنجان انتخاب شد. داده‏های اولیه تهیه و نقشه‏های مورد نیاز شامل نقشه‏های مدل رقومی ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، شمالی‌بودن، شرقی‌بودن، انحنای افقی، انحنای عمودی، شاخص وضعیت توپوگرافی و تابش خورشیدی استخراج شد. سپس، هنگام بارش اوج برف، عمق برف به تعداد 150 نمونه به روش هایپرکیوب لاتین و چگالی برف به تعداد 18 نمونه به‌روش تصادفی اندازه‏گیری شد. محاسبات شاخص بادپناهی برای نقاط اندازه‏گیری‌شدۀ عمق برف انجام شد. در مرحلۀ بعد با انجام رگرسیون بین آب معادل برف با عوامل مؤثر، رابطۀ کمی بین آنها تعیین شد. کارایی مدل‏ها با شاخص‏های آماری میانگین خطا، میانگین خطای مطلق، ریشۀ میانگین مربعات خطا و ضریب همبستگی تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد در حوضۀ آبخیز یادشده با روش رگرسیون گام‌به‌گام می‏توان آب معادل برف را برآورد کرد. همچنین براساس نتایج، هرچند عامل اقلیمی شاخص باد‌پناهی حجم زیاد محاسبات را دارد؛ ولی دخالت‌دادن آن سبب افزایش کارایی مدل در برآورد آب معادل برف می‏شود. آب معادل برف بیشترین همبستگی معنا‏دار را با ارتفاع برابر با 607/0 و کمترین همبستگی معنا‏دار را با شمالی‌بودن برابر با 204/0 در محدودۀ مطالعاتی دارد. ضرایب همبستگی بین متغیر وابستۀ آب معادل برف با متغیر مستقل شاخص بادپناهی نشان می‏دهد فاصلۀ 300 متری، مؤثرترین فاصلۀ بر‌هم‌کنش باد و پستی و بلندی‌ها در ایجاد شرایط بادپناهی و بادروبی است. ضریب تغییرات عمق و چگالی برف اندازه‌گیری‌شده به‌ترتیب برابر با 14/54 ‌و 89/7 درصد است.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial distribution of snow water equivalent modeling based on topography and climatic factors (Case Study: Sohravard watershed, Zanjan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hojatolah Ganjkhanlo 1
  • Mehdi Vafakhah 2
  • Ali Fathzadeh 3
  • Hossein Zeinivand 4
1 PhD Student, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University
3 Associate Professor, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, Ardakan University
4 Associate Professor, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Lorestan University
چکیده [English]

It is inevitable to obtain necessary data including snow depth, snow density and snow water equivalent (SWE) in order to manage water resources in mountains areas. On the other hand, due to financial constraints, unfair weather and impassability of mountainous areas, measurement is limited to the points, and its generalization to larger areas is associated with large errors. A method for predicting the SWE is investigation the relationship between the SWE and effective factors. Therefore, in this research, mountainous Sohravard watershed located in Zanjan Province was selected as the case study. The required data and maps including Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, aspect, northern, eastern, profile curvature, plan curvature, topography position index and solar radiation maps were extracted. Then, during the peak of snowfall in the area, snow depth of 150 points and snow density of 18 points were measured using Latin Hypercube and random sampling methods, respectively. The calculation of upwind slope was carried out for the measured snow points. In the next step, the quantitative relation between the SWE and effective factors was determined by fitting a regression relationship. The efficiency of the created models was evaluated by statistical criteria including mean bias error, mean absolute error, root mean square error and correlation coefficient(R). The results showed that SWE in the studied watershed could be estimated by using stepwise regression.  As the results show, although climate factor of upwind slope requires high computing, its incorporation in the model can lead to increased model efficiency in the SWE estimation. The SWE had the highest significant correlation equal to 0.607 with the elevation, and the lowest significant correlation equal to 0.204 to the northern part of the study area. Correlation coefficient between the dependent variable SWE and independent variable upwind slope shows that 300 meters distance is the most effective distance of the interaction of wind and terrain in creation of wind sheltering and wind deflation. Coefficient of variation in snow depth and snow density measurements is 54.14% and 7.89%, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Latin hypercube sampling
  • Snow water equivalent
  • Stepwise regression
  • upwind slope

مراجع

 
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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 4، شماره 3
مهر 1396
صفحه 673-686

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 10 دی 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 خرداد 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 خرداد 1396

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