نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور تهران
2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران
عنوان مقاله [English]
In the present study, first the behavioral patterns of precipitation climatic variable over the period 1985-2014 in Kharrood watershed was investigated. Then, in order to analyze the effects of climate change resulting from reduced rainfall under different scenarios (i.e. mild, moderate and severe) on hydrological (available water resources and economic value of irrigation water) and economic (agricultural products and farmers’ gross profit) variables, a biophysical-economic modeling system was used. The aforementioned modeling system includes the products yield function based on rainfall (biophysical part of model) and positive mathematical programming approach (economic part of model) solved in consecutive three stages and in the GAMS 24.1 software. The required data were collected referring to the rain gauge stations and the relevant agencies in Qazvin province. Behavioral pattern of precipitation showed that this climate variable reduced in Kharrood watershed after year 2001. The results of proposed model showed that climate change resulting from reduced rainfall under mild to severe scenarios decreases the available water resources from 11/3 to 23/0 %, increases the economic value of irrigation water from 7/08 to 15/22 %, decreases the total acreage of water crops from 5/14 to 16/39 % and decreases the farmers’ gross profit from 6/58 to 13/41 % compared to the base year. The highest decrease of the available water resources in Kharrod watershed was obtained under severe scenarios and at a rate of 15/29 million cubic meters. Finally, use of deficit irrigation techniques, determination of the rate of water charge for farmers on the basis of equality consideration, fallow-lands and provision of facilities to farmers in order to equip their lands with new irrigation systems were proposed in order to deal with the effects of climate change and protect water resources in this watershed.