صحت‌سنجی روش‌های تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP) و رگرسیون چند متغیره (MR) در پهنه‌بندی زمین لغزش (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیر ولی‌عصر استان اردبیل)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی‏ ارشد گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت ‏مدرس، نور

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت ‏مدرس، نور

3 دکتری تکتونیک‌ـ زمین‌شناسی، کارشناس زمین‏ شناسی شرکت طه (قرارگاه خاتم‌الانبیاء)

چکیده

ارائۀ راه‏کارهای مفید برای پیشگیری و کاهش خسار‌ت‌های ناشی از زمین‌لغزش امری اجتناب‏ناپذیر است. از جملۀ این راه‏کارها، پیش‏بینی و پهنه‏بندی مناطق مستعد وقوع این حرکات است. بر همین اساس پژوهش حاضر به مقایسه و ارزیابی صحت دو روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP) و رگرسیون چند‌متغیره (MR) در پهنه‏بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش در حوضۀ آبخیز ولی‏عصر با مساحت 198 کیلومتر‌مربع واقع در استان اردبیل پرداخت. شش عامل جهت جغرافیایی، شیب، ارتفاع، سنگ‏شناسی، کاربری اراضی و فاصله از رودخانه به‏عنوان مهم‏ترین عوامل مؤثر در وقوع زمین‌لغزش‏های منطقه شناخته شدند. در گام بعدی نقشه‏های پهنه‏بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش با هر دو روش AHP و MR در پنج طبقه تهیه شد. در نهایت، به‏منظور صحت‏سنجی دو روش استفاده‌شده، نقشه‏های تهیه‌شده با شاخص‏های نسبت تراکم (Dr) و شاخص مجموع کیفیت (Qs) مقایسه و ارزیابی شدند. نتایج نشان داد عوامل فاصله از رودخانه، جهت، شیب، کاربری اراضی، سنگ‏شناسی و ارتفاع به‌ترتیب با مقادیر 426/0، 173/0، 145/0، 134/0، 089/0 و 033/0 در روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی و 531/0، 109/0، 344/0، 273/0، 123/0 و 061/0 در روش رگرسیون چند‌متغیره وزن‏دهی شدند. مقدار شاخص‏ نسبت تراکم و شاخص مجموع کیفیت به‏ترتیب، 51/5 و 44/0 برای روش‏ تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی و 45/6 و 72/0 برای روش رگرسیون چند‌متغیره برآورد شد که نشان داد روش رگرسیون چند‌متغیره با میزان 28 درصد مغایرت با واقعیت صحت بیشتری نسبت به روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی با 56 درصد مغایرت با واقعیت برای پهنه‏بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش در منطقۀ مطالعه‌شده دارد.
 
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Verification methods of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multivariate Regression (MR) in landslide zoning (Case Study: Valiasr Watershed in Ardabil Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Ghavimipanah 1
  • Abdulvahed Khaledi Darvishan 2
  • Mohammad Reza Ghavimipanah 3
1 MSc. Student, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran
3 PhD in Tectonic-Geology, Geology Expert in TaHa Consulting Engineers
چکیده [English]

Providing effective solutions to prevent and reduce the damage caused by landslides is inevitable. Predicting and zoning landslides are among these solutions. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to compare and assess the accuracy of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multivariate Regression (MR) methods in landslide hazard zoning in Valiasr Watershed with an area of 198 km-2 located in western Ardebil Province. Six factors including aspect, slope, elevation, lithology, land use and distance from the river were known as the most effective factors in landslide occurrence in the study area. Landslide zones were then obtained in five classes using two AHP and MR methods. Finally, landslide zoning maps were compared and evaluated by Density ratio index (Dr) and Quality sum index (Qs) to assess the accuracy of two studied methods. The results showed that distance from river, slope, land use, lithology and height were weighting in 0.426, 0.173, 0.145, 0.134, 0.089, and 0.033 in the AHP methods and 0.531, 0.109, 0.344, 0.273, 0.123 and 0.061 in the MR method, respectively. The amount of two Dr and Qs indices were calculated to be 5.51 and 0.44 respectively in the AHP method and 6.45 and 0.72 respectively in MR method which indicated that MR method having 28% disagreement with reality was more accurate than AHP method having 56% disagreement with reality for landslide hazard in the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Density ratio index
  • geographic information systems (GIS)
  • mass movements
  • quality sum index
 
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