بهینه‌سازی تعداد ایستگاه‌های باران‌سنجی ایران براساس روش‌‌های میان یابی و تحلیل مولفه‌های اصلی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش ‏آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس

2 دانش‏ آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس

3 استادیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس

چکیده

 
بهینه‏سازی تعداد ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک در تخمین میزان بارندگی به لحاظ کاهش هزینۀ تعمیر و نگهداری، گامی مهم است. هدف اصلی این تحقیق، تعیین تعداد بهینۀ ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک برای تخمین میزان بارندگی است. بر این اساس، ابتدا مقادیر باران ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک مربوط به دورۀ آماری مشترک 14‌ساله از سازمان هواشناسی کشور اخذ شد و عملکرد پنج روش مختلف درون‏یابی ارزیابی شد. با توجه به نتایج، روش تابع پایۀ شعاعی (RBF)، با میزان خطای 63/0 به‌عنوان مناسب‏ترین برازش داده، انتخاب شد و سپس با استفاده از روش یادشده و PCA بهینه‏سازی ایستگاه‏ها صورت پذیرفت. بررسی‏های انجام‌شده نشان می‏دهد با حذف ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک در روش PCA خطای برآورد RMSE از 48/0 به 52/0 نسبت به حالتی که از همۀ ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک استفاده می‏شد، افزایش یافت و در روش میان‏یابی تابع پایۀ شعاعی میزان خطا از 63/0 به 55/0 کاهش یافت که بیان‌کنندۀ مناسب‌بودن این روش در بهینه‏سازی ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک کشور است. نتایج بیان می‌کند که با حذف 34 نقطه در روش PCA و 22 نقطه در روش میان‏یابی تابع پایۀ شعاعی از شبکۀ ایستگاه‏های سینوپتیک ایران مقدار خطای به‌دست‌آمده قابل قبول است.
 

 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimization of the number of rain gage stations based on interpolation methods and principal components analysis in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Gerkani Nezhad Moshizi 1
  • Fatemeh Teimouri 2
  • Ommolbanin Bazrafshan 3
1 Graduate Student, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar -Abbas, Iran
2 Graduate Student, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar -Abbas, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar- Abbas, Iran
چکیده [English]

Optimization of the number of synoptic stations in the estimation of rainfall is an important step in terms of reducing the maintenance cost and saving the data collection. The main objective of this study was to determine the optimal number of synoptic stations to estimate the amount of rainfall in Iran. Accordingly, the amount of rainfall of synoptic stations related to a common 14-year period was received from the National Weather Service and the performances of five different interpolation methods were evaluated. Based on the results of radial basis function (RBF), with a margin of error of 0.63, this method was selected as the most appropriate method in fitting the data. Studies show that eliminating the synoptic stations in PCA method increases the estimation error of RMSE from 0.48 to 0.52 related given that all synoptic stations were used; moreover, in the radial basis function, interpolation method decreases from 0.63 to 0.55 which indicates the suitability of this method in the optimization of synoptic stations. The results indicate that through removing 34 and 22 points from the network of synoptic stations in Iran respectively in the PCA method and interpolation method of radial basis, the resulting error will acceptable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Optimization
  • interpolation
  • PCA
  • Validation
  • synoptic stations
 
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