پایش خشکسالی هواشناسی به‌منظور حفظ پایداری در سناریوهای واداشت تابشی منطقۀ مطالعاتی (حوضۀ آبریز سد دویرج)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری منابع آب، استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه رازی

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه رازی

چکیده

پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم آب و هوایی موجب تکرار حوادث غیرمترقبه نظیر خشکسالی و سیل می‌شود و خسار‌ت‌های بسیاری به زندگی انسان و اکوسیستم‏های طبیعی وارد می‏کند. هدف از این پژوهش، حفظ پایداری حوضۀ سد دویرج شهرستان دهلران در سناریوهای واداشت تابشی در برابر حوادث تغییر اقلیم است. دورۀ مشاهداتی در این پژوهش (1987‌ـ 2015) و دورۀ آتی (2016‌ـ 2044) است. به این‌منظور از ترکیب وزنی پنج مدل گزارش پنجم (AR5) تحت سناریوی rcp8.5 برای ارزیابی تغییرات بارش و دما در دورۀ آتی استفاده شد. از روش وزن‌دهی MOTP برای کاهش عدم قطعیت مدل‏های GCM استفاده شد و ریزمقیاس‌سازی به روش عامل تغییر انجام ‏شد. پایش خشکسالی هواشناسی در بازه‏های ماهانه، فصلی و سالانه با روش زنجیرۀ‏ مارکوف و شاخص‏های خشکسالی  SIAP, SPI ,Z scoreو BMDI و تحلیل فراوانی محاسبه شد. نتایج بیان‌کنندۀ افزایش میانگین درازمدت بارش و دمای ماهانه به‌میزان 14 درصد و 2/1 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد نسبت به دورۀ پایه است. تحلیل عدم قطعیت بارش‏ها با زنجیرۀ مارکوف احتمال وقوع ماه بدون بارش بعد از ماه بدون بارش دیگر در فصول زمستان، بهار و پاییز به‌ترتیب 56، 63 و 52 درصد است و احتمال وقوع بارش بعد از یک ماه خشک در فصول یادشده به‌ترتیب 44، 35 و 47 درصد است نیز بیشترین احتمال وقوع ماه‏های با بارش، مربوط به ماه آوریل است. بر اساس تحلیل نمایه‏های خشکسالی سال 2017-2018 نسبت به سال 2016-2017 مرطوب‏تر و در کل دورۀ آتی سال‏های 2024-2025 و 2025-2026 مرطوب‏ترین سال‏ها بر اساس این پژوهش‌اند. تحلیل فراوانی بارش حوضۀ سد دویرج بارش با دورۀ بازگشت 50 سال را 61/727 میلی‏متر در یک سال برآورد کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Meteorological drought monitoring in order to sustainability in RCP scenarios Case study: Doiraj watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Hafezparast 1
  • Zohreh Pourkheirolah 2
1 Assistant Professor at Razi University, Water Engineering Department
2 MSC student of water resources engineering, Razi university
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study is to preserve the sustainability of the Doiraj watershed in RCP scenarios. The observation and future period in this study is (1987-2015) and (2044-2016). For this purpose, the combined weight of 5 models of Fifth Report (AR5), rcp8.5 scenario, used to assess changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming period. MOTP weighting method to reduce uncertainty of GCM models were used Meteorological drought monitoring in monthly, Seasonal and yearly intervals using Markov chain, frequency analysis and drought indexes SIAP, SPI, Z score and BMDI was calculated. The results showed that long-term average monthly rainfall and temperature at a rate of 14 percent and 2.1 degrees Celsius as compared to the baseline. Markov chain probability of uncertainty precipitation showed, two months without precipitation in winter, spring and autumn, respectively 56, 63 and 52 percent and the chance of precipitation after a month of dry seasons, respectively 44, 35 and 47 percent. Based on the analysis of the indices during the years 2017-2018 than in 2016-2017 wetter and future years in the period 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 wettest years on the basis of this research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Meteorological drought
  • AR5
  • Drought indexes
  • Markov Chain
  • Frequency Analysis
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