ارزیابی سناریوهای مدیریت آب و تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پایداری زیست‌محیطی و کشاورزی (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضه‌های آبریز زرینه‌رود و سیمینه‌رود)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، بخش تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان آذربایجان غربی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ارومیه آموزش

2 استاد، بخش مهندسی عمران، دانشکدۀ فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 دانشیار، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

4 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

دریاچۀ ارومیه واقع در شمال غربی ایران طی دو دهۀ گذشته هر سال حدود 40 سانتی‏متر افت سطح آب داشته و در حال خشک‌شدن است که این مسئله به عواقب اجتماعی و زیست‏محیطی منجر شده است. در تحقیق حاضر شاخص‏های پایداری زیست‏محیطی و پایداری کشاورزی با استفاده از معیارهای عملکرد تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم و راهبردهای مدیریت آب برای حوضه‏های آبریز زرینه‏رود و سیمینه‏رود، به عنوان بزرگ‏ترین زیرحوضۀ دریاچۀ ارومیه ارزیابی شد. مدل‏سازی رفتار هیدرولوژیک این حوضه‏ها با استفاده از نرم‏افزار 21WEAP انجام گرفت. برای شبیه‏سازی تغییرات اقلیمی از مدل ریزمقیاس‌‌نمایی LARS-WG استفاده شد. مدل برای سه سناریوی انتشار آینده (2A، B1A و 1B)، طی دورۀ 2015-2040، و پنج سناریوی مدیریت آب: 1. ادامۀ وضع موجود (0S)، 2. تغییر الگوی کشت (1S)، 3. بهبود راندمان انتقال و توزیع (2S)، 4. ترکیب بهبود راندمان انتقال و توزیع با بهبود راندمان کاربرد با استفاده از تکنولوژی‏های نوین (3S)، و 5. ترکیب تغییر الگوی کشت با بهبود راندمان کل آبیاری (4S) ‌تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد بیشترین مقادیر شاخص‏های پایداری زیست‏محیطی و پایداری کشاورزی مربوط به سناریوی ترکیب تغییر الگوی کشت با بهبود راندمان کل آبیاری تحت سناریوی انتشار 1B (4S1B) است. تحت این سناریو، مقدار جریان متوسط سالیانۀ ورودی به دریاچۀ ارومیه از حوضه‏های آبریز زرینه‏رود و سیمینه‏رود به‌ترتیب برابر 1292 و 351 میلیون مترمکعب در سال شده و در نتیجه نیاز زیست‏محیطی دریاچه از این حوضه‏ها تأمین خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Water Management Scenarios and the Impact of Climate Change on Environmental and Agricultural Sustainability (Case Study: Zarrinehrud and Siminehrud River Basins)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jamal Ahmadaali 1
  • Gholam-Abbas Barani 2
  • Kourosh Qaderi 3
  • Behzad Hessari 4
1 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Engineering Research Department, West Azarbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Urmia, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]

Urmia Lake, as a hyper saline and very shallow lake, located in the northwest of Iran, has had reduced water level of about 40 centimeters each year over the past two decades and is drying, which this problem has led to social and environmental consequences. In this research, the indexes of environmental and agricultural sustainability were evaluated using performance criteria influenced by climate change and water management strategies for the Zerrinehrud and Siminehrud river basins as the largest sub-basin of Urmia Lake Basin. Modeling of hydrologic behavior of these basins was performed by WEAP21 model. The LARS-WG downscaling model was used to simulate climate change.Then the model was analyzed for three future emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), for the period 2015-2040, and five water management scenarios: (1) keeping the existing situation (S0), (2) crop pattern change (S1), (3) improving the conveyance and distribution efficiency (S2), (4) combining the improvement of conveyance and distribution efficiency with improving the application efficiency using modern technology (S3), and (5) the combination of crop pattern change with the improvement of total irrigation efficiency (S4). The results showed that the highest values of indices ​​of environmental sustainability and agricultural sustainability were related to the scenario of combining the crop pattern change with improving the total irrigation efficiency under the B1 emission scenario (B1S4). In this scenario, the average annual flow of water entering the Urmia Lake from Zarrinehrud and Siminehrud river basins will be equal to 1292 and 351 MCM per year, and as a result, the environmental flow requirements of the lake will be supplied from these basins.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urmia Lake
  • Zarrinehrud Irrigation Network
  • LARS-WG Model
  • WEAP21 Model
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