ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم و تغییر کاربری اراضی بر فرسایش خاک (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضۀ آبخیز کندران)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان

3 استادیار، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه جیرفت

چکیده

تغییرات جهانی اقلیم و کاربری اراضی می‏تواند به‌شدت بر میزان فرسایش و توانایی خاک برای حفظ کشاورزی و به تبع آن، بر امنیت غذایی منطقه‏ای یا جهانی تأثیر بگذارد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم و تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر فرسایش با استفاده از مدل RUSLE است. از این‌رو، تغییرات آب و هوایی براساس دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 با استفاده از مدل آماری برای دوره‏های 2016-2030 و 2031-2050 نسبت به دورۀ پایه (1986-2015) استفاده شدند. مدل LCM برای پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری زمین و پوشش گیاهی در حوضۀ آبخیز کندران استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد فاکتور فرسایش باران (R-factor) و عامل پوشش گیاهی (C-factor) در مدل RUSLE تحت تأثیر مستقیم تغییرات اقلیمی و نیز تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی قرار دارند. به‌طوری ‏که میزان فاکتور فرسایش‏پذیری از 38/76 در دورۀ پایه به 7/83 در دورۀ 2016-2030 و 3/82 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 در دورۀ 2031-2050 افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین، فاکتور پوشش گیاهی از 225/0 در دورۀ پایه به 43/0 در دورۀ 2016-2030 و 56/0 در 2031-2050 افزایش می‏‏یابد. میانگین فرسایش خاک در دورۀ پایه 8/9 (تن در هکتار در سال) بود که طی دو دهۀ آینده (2016-2030) با استفاده از دو سناریوی بررسی‌شده، به طور متوسط 16 درصد (37/11) و طی پنج دهۀ آینده 20 درصد (3/10) بر میزان فرسایش افزوده می‏شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Soil Erosion (Case study: Kondaran watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • fatemeh TEIMOURI 1
  • Ommolbanin Bazrafshan 2
  • elham Rafiei sardoei 3
1 University of Hormozgan
3 Jiroft University
چکیده [English]

Climate change and land use can greatly affect soil erosion and the ability of the soil to maintain agriculture, and in turn could affect regional or global food security. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of climate change and land use change on erosion using the RUSLE model. Therefore, climate change is based on two scenarios of climate change, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 using the statistical model For the period 2015-2030 and 2050-2050. The LCM model was used to predict land use changes in the Kondran watershed. Also, the RUSLE model was used to assess the soil erosion in the base period (1986-2015) and in simulated courses (2016-2030 and 2031-2050) under the influence of climate change scenarios. The results showed that rainfall erosion and factor C in the RUSLE model are directly affected by climate change and land use change and vegetation cover. So that, R-factor will increase from 83.7 in basis period to 83.7 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 in 2016-2030 and 82.3 in 2031-2050. Also, C-factor will increase from 0.225 in basisi period to 0.43 during 2016-2030 and 0.56 during 2031-2050. The average soil erosion was 9.8 (ton/ha/year) during the base period, which in durint 2016-2030, using the two scenarios examined, averagely 11.37 ton/ha/year will increase and during 2031-2050 will increase to 10.3 ton/ha/year.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Soil erosion
  • Land cover change
  • LCM model
  • RUSLE model
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