مقایسۀ رویکردهای مختلف تفکیک آثار انسانی و اقلیمی بر تغییرات جریان حوضه‌های آبخیز

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران

چکیده

نوسانات اقلیمی و فعالیت‏های انسانی از مهم‏ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر منابع آب هستند و طی چند دهۀ گذشته، سهم زیادی در تغییرات جریان رودخانه‏ها داشته‏اند. بنابراین، بررسی سهم هر یک از این دو عامل در تغییرات جریان رودخانه می‏تواند به مدیریت منابع آب منطقه‏ای در سیاست‏گذاری و توسعۀ راهبردهای سازگار کمک کند. به ‏منظور تعیین سهم هر یک از عوامل انسانی و اقلیمی در تغییرات جریان رودخانه، رویکرد‏های مختلفی وجود دارند که هر یک از این رویکرد‏ها دارای فرضیات و منابع عدم قطعیت مخصوص به خود در تعیین سهم هر یک از عوامل هستند. بر این اساس، در مطالعۀ حاضر با استفاده از سه رویکرد مرسوم مدل‏سازی داده‌محور، آماری و تحلیلی، سهم آثار انسانی و اقلیمی در تغییرات جریان حوضۀ آبخیز سد کرخه و چهار زیرحوضۀ اصلی آن طی دورۀ 1980 تا 2014 به ‏دست ‏آمد و دامنۀ تغییرات نتایج و حساسیت و اطمینان‏پذیری آنها بررسی شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان‏دهندۀ حساسیت رویکردهای یادشده به طول دورۀ آماری و وقایع حدی موجود در آن و همچنین دامنۀ عدم قطعیت زیاد نتایج ‌آنها در نسبت‏دهی سهم فعالیت‏های انسانی و نوسانات اقلیمی در کاهش جریان رودخانه است. به‏گونه‏ای که سهم فعالیت‏های انسانی در کاهش جریان رودخانه با توجه به این سه رویکرد در کل حوضه، حدود 60 تا 83 درصد و سهم نوسانات اقلیمی حدود 17 تا 40 درصد در دورۀ یادشده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Different Approaches to Seprating Human and Climatic Impacts on Run-off Changes in Basins

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Ahmadi 1
  • Majid Delavar 2
1 M.s Student of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University
2 Assistant Professor of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University
چکیده [English]

Climate variations and human activities are among the most important factors affecting water resources and they have played a major role in river flow changes over the past decades. Therefore, determining the contribution of each of these two factors to river flow changes can help to manage regional water resources in policy and development of consistent strategies. To determine the contribution of each of the human and climatic factors in river flow changes, there are different approaches, each of which have their own assumptions and uncertainties in determining the contribution of each of the factors. Accordingly, in this study, using three conventional approaches used to distinguish between human and climatic effects including data-driven modeling, statistical and analytical approaches, the contribution of human and climatic impacts to changes in run-off in the Karkheh dam basin and its four main sub-basins during the period 1980-2014 is estimated and the range of changes in results and the sensitivity and reliability of their outcomes have been analyzed. The results show that all three approaches are sensitive to the duration of the statistical period and the extreme events and demonstrate a high range of uncertainty in their results in terms of the contribution of human activities and climate fluctuations to reducing river flow. Thus, the contribution of human activities in reducing river flow, based on these three approaches across the basin, is between 60 to 83 percent, and the contribution of climate variations is between 17 to 40 percent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate variations
  • Human activities
  • Artificial Neural Network
  • Climate elasticity
  • Karkheh basin
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