انتخاب منطقۀ مناسب در تولید گندم با استفاده از مفهوم رد پای آب و روش های تصمیم گیری اجتماعی (مطالعۀ موردی: استان اصفهان)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکدۀ مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

2 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

3 استاد، دانشکدۀ مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

4 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده ‏های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

با بررسی هرچه دقیق‏تر رد پای آب در محصولات کشاورزی و همچنین، تغییرات آن در دورۀ زمانی بلندمدت می‏توان بهره‌برداری از منابع آب را مدیریت کرد. مطالعۀ حاضر با هدف بررسی روند سالانۀ رد پای آب در تولید گندم در شهرهای استان اصفهان و انتخاب مناسب‏ترین شهر این استان برای کشت گندم طی دورۀ آماری 1369- 1395 انجام شد. به منظور بررسی امکان وجود روند در سری زمانی رد پای آب در تولید گندم از آزمون روندیابی من‏کندال و تخمین‏گر شیب سن استفاده شد. بعد از رتبه‏بندی شهر‏ها از منظر رد پای آب و روند رد پای آب، با استفاده از قوانین انتخاب اجتماعی (SCR)، بهترین شهر برای کشت گندم در استان اصفهان مشخص شد. نتایج پژوهشش حاضر نشان داد متوسط رد پای آب کل در تولید گندم در استان اصفهان برابر (m3/ton) 73/4122 بود و با توجه به آمارۀ من‏کندال مشاهده شد که روند کاهشی و افزایشی وجود دارد و این روند در حالت کاهشی و در حالت افزایشی برای هیچ‌یک از شهر‏های استان معنا‏دار نبود. با توجه به مقدار شیب سن، دامنۀ تغییرات این شیب نیز برای رد پای آب کل برابر (m3/ton) 93 بود. همچنین، نتایج بیان‌کنندۀ این موضوع بود که مقدار شاخص رد پای آب در تولید یک محصول در یک منطقه، معیار قابل قبولی برای انتخاب آن منطقه برای کشت آن محصول نیست و با بررسی روند این شاخص و استفاده از روش‏های تصمیم‏گیری همچون قوانین انتخاب اجتماعی، می‏توان منطقۀ مناسب برای کشت هر محصول را تشخیص داد و تغییر الگوی کشت را در سیاست کار خود به منظور حفظ منابع آبی و افزایش بهره‏وری محصولات قرار داد. در مطالعۀ حاضر از نظر رد پای آب، فریدون‏شهر به عنوان بهترین شهر برای کشت گندم در استان اصفهان انتخاب شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Choosing a Suitable Area for Wheat Production Through the Concept of Water Footprint and Social Decision-making Methods (Case study: Esfahan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Golabi 1
  • Fereidon Radmanesh 2
  • Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali 3
  • Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan 4
1 Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Water Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Water Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
3 Professor, Faculty of Water Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
4 Associate Professor, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

The use of water resources can be managed by examining the water footprint of agricultural products more precisely, as well as its long-term variations. The present study aims to determine the annual water footprint trend of wheat production in Esfahan province from 1982 to 2016. To investigate the trend of water footprint time series of wheat production, the Mann-Kendall Trend test, and Sen's slope estimator were applied. After ranking the cities in terms of the water footprint and water footprint trend using the Social Choice Rules (SCR), Esfahan province was identified as the best city for wheat cultivation. The results showed that the average total water footprint of wheat production in Esfahan province was 4122.73 m3/ton and according to Mann-Kendall statistics, there was an insignificant decreasing and increasing trend. According to the value of Sen's slope estimator, the range of this slope was 93 (m3 / ton) for the total water footprint. The results also indicated that the amount of water footprint indicator in producing a product was not an acceptable criterion to choose that area for cultivating that product. By using the trend of this indicator and decision-making methods, e.g., social choice rules, it is possible to identify the best region for cultivating each product, change the pattern of cultivation in its policy of work, preserve water resources, and increase productivity. In this study, Fereydun Shahr, a city in Esfahan province, was selected as the best place for wheat cultivation in terms of the water footprint.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • water footprint
  • Trend Analysis
  • Mann-Kendall
  • Sen's slope estimator
  • Social choice rules
  • Esfahan
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