بررسی رخداد تغییر اقلیم و تأثیر آن بر طول دورۀ رشد گندم (مطالعۀ موردی: استان فارس)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و تکنولوژی بذر؛ دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار گروه انرژی ‏های نو و محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران

3 کارشناسی ارشد علوم و تکنولوژی بذر دانشگاه تهران

4 کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

هدف از پژوهش حاضر، پیش‏بینی تغییرات اقلیمی و بررسی اثر تغییر احتمالی اقلیم روی مقادیر درجه- روز رشد و تعداد روز کل رشد گندم در استان فارس است. به این منظور، با استفاده از داده‏های اقلیمی سه ایستگاه سینوپتیک شیراز، لار و آبادۀ استان فارس و داده‏های دو مدل HADGEM2-ES و EC-EART تحت سناریوهای RCP45 و RCP85 ریزمقیاس شده‏اند. به‏منظور ریزمقیاس‌نمایی، از مدل آماری LARS-WG استفاده ‏شده است. نتایج نشان داد مدل LARS-WG ‌دقت مناسب در ریزمقیاس‌نمایی پارامترهای اقلیمی بارش، دمای کمینه و بیشینۀ استان فارس را دارد. دمای کمینه و بیشینۀ هر سه ایستگاه شیراز، لار و آباده تحت دو سناریوی RCP45 و RCP85 روندی افزایشی داشته است. مقدار افزایش دمای کمینۀ دورۀ پایه (1980ـ 2015) استان فارس نسبت به دورۀ 2021ـ 2040 برای سناریوی RCP45 و RCP85 به‌ترتیب برابر با 43/1 و 65/1 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد است. مقدار افزایش دمای بیشینۀ دورۀ پایه نسبت به این دوره برای سناریوی RCP45 و RCP85 به‌ترتیب برابر با 51/1 و 66/1 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد است. مقدار تغییرات بارش دورۀ پایه نسبت به دورۀ یادشده برای سناریوی RCP45 و RCP85 به‌ترتیب برابر با 93/2 و 95/1 درصد افزایش را نشان می‏دهد. در ادامه، با استفاده از معادلۀ ADP مقدار شاخص تعداد-روز تحت دو آستانۀ دمایی 4 و 25 درجۀ سانتی‏گراد برای بازۀ زمانی پایه و آینده (2021-2040) محاسبه و نتایج نشان داد درجۀ روزهای دورۀ رشد گندم (GDD) و تعداد روز کل دورۀ رشد (DAP) نسبت به دورۀ پایه به‌ترتیب روندی افزایشی و کاهشی داشته است. تعداد روز کل دورۀ رشد ایستگاه شیراز مدل HadGEM2-ES تحت دو سناریوی RCP45 و RCP85 از 244 (دورۀ پایه) به 169 و 165 کاهش داشته و برای ایستگاه آباده از 277 به 220 و 217 و برای ایستگاه لار از 198 به 143 و 145 کاهش داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Climate Change Occurrence and its Impact on Wheat Growth (Case Study: Fars Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Rezaei Chermahini 1
  • Hossein Yousefi 2
  • Zeinab Mansouri 3
  • Parsa Haghighi 4
1 Ph.D. Student of Seed Science and Technology, University of Tehran.Iran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Master of Seed Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Iran
4 Master of Nature Engineering, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to predict climate change and investigate the effect of climate change on Growth Day-days and total days of wheat growth in the Fars province. For this purpose, the climate data of three synoptic stations of Shiraz, Lar and Abadeh in Fars province and the data of two models HADGEM2-ES and EC-EART were scaled under RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios. LARS-WG statistical model was used for downscaling. The results showed that the LARS-WG model has appropriate accuracy in downscaling of Fars province climate, minimum and maximum temperature parameters. The minimum and maximum temperatures of all three stations of Shiraz, Lar and Abadeh increased under both RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios. The increase in the minimum temperature of the base period (1980–2015) in the Fars province relative to the period (2021–2040) for the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios are 1.43 and 1.65 ° C, respectively. The maximum increase in base temperature over this period for the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios are 1.51 and 1.66 ° C, respectively. The amount of changes in the rainfall of the baseline period increased by 2.93% and 1.95% for the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios, respectively. Then, using ADP equation, the number of day-index under two temperature thresholds of 4 and 25 ° C for the basic and future time interval (2021-2040) was calculated and the results showed the degree of days of wheat growth period (GDD) and total days’ number. The growth period (DAP) had an increasing and decreasing trend compared to the baseline period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • RCP scenarios
  • Downscaling
  • GDD
  • ADP
  • Fars province
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