ارزیابی ریسک طرح‌های توسعۀ منابع آب با روش تحلیل درخت خطا (مطالعۀ موردی: ناحیۀ 4 مکران و بندرعباس)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران

3 دکترای مدیریت منابع آب، شرکت توسعۀ منابع آب و نیروی ایران، تهران

چکیده

امروزه پراکنش نامناسب بارش وکاهش نزولات جوی، به علاوۀ افزایش جمعیت و به تبع آن، افزایش مصرف و تقاضای آب، جامعه را به استفاده از طرح‌های توسعۀ منابع آب سوق داده است. همچنین، یکی از اهداف بلندمدت راهبردی آب کشور، برقرار کردن تعادل بین میزان تقاضای آب و منابع آب موجود با توجه به شاخص‏های اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی است. از این‌رو، تحلیل ریسک طرح‌های توسعۀ منابع آب با توجه به شاخص‏های توسعۀ پایدار ضرورت می‏یابد. در پژوهش حاضر برای نخستین‌بار، تکنیک تحلیل درخت خطا به منظور ارزیابی ریسک طرح‌های توسعۀ منابع آب، تحت چارچوب توسعۀ پایدار استفاده شده است. پس از تعیین رویداد رأس، عوامل منجر به وقوع آن شامل شکست شاخص‌های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست‌محیطی و منابع آب، شناسایی شدند. مدل پیشنهادی در قالب مطالعۀ موردی برای طرح‌های توسعۀ منابع آب ناحیۀ 4 سواحل مکران تا شهر بندرعباس ارائه شد. پس از محاسبۀ عملکرد منطقه در ونسیم، احتمال شکست شاخص‌های توسعۀ پایدار براساس خروجی ونسیم برآورد شد و به عنوان ورودی درخت خطای پیشنهادی به کار رفت. نتایج مطالعۀ حاضر نشان داد احتمال شکست بهترین و بدترین سناریو و همچنین شرایط موجود برای نیازهای آتی، به‌ترتیب برابر 38، 90 و50 درصد برآورد شد. در نهایت، به دلیل ریسک زیاد محاسبه‌شده، به رتبه‌بندی رویدادهای پایه براساس سهمی که در وقوع رویداد رأس دارند، پرداخته شد. نتایج رتبه‏بندی نشان داد مؤثرترین رویدادهای پایه در بهترین سناریو به‌ترتیب، شکست اجتماعی و اقتصادی و در بدترین سناریو، شکست اقتصادی و اجتماعی هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Assessment of Water Resources Development Plans Using the Fault Tree Analysis Method (Case Study: District 4 of Mokran and Bandar Abbas)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeedeh Abedzadeh 1
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
  • Ali Heidari 3
1 MSc Student of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran
3 Ph.D of Water Resources Management, Iran Water and Power Resources Development Co., Tehran
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, the improper distribution of rainfall and the decline in precipitation, in addition to the population growth, resulted in water consumption and demand have made society dependent on the use of water resources development plans. Also, one of the long-term goals of the country’s water strategy is to strike a balance between the amount of water demand and existing water resources, bearing in mind the social, economic, and environmental considerations. Therefore, risk analysis of water resource development plans based on sustainable development indicators is necessary. In the present study, for the first time, the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique was employed in order to assess the risk of water resource development projects under the framework of sustainable development. After determining the top event, factors leading to its occurrence, including the failure of social, economic, environmental and water resources indices were identified. The proposed model was presented as a case study for water resources development plans of the “district 4 of Mokran to Bandar Abbas City”. After calculating the area performance in Vensim, the probability of failure of the Sustainable Development Indicators was estimated based on Vensim output and used as input to the proposed Fault Tree. The results showed that the failure probability of the best, worst and existing condition scenarios were 38%, 90% and 50%, respectively. Finally, due to the calculated high risk, the base events were ranked based on their contribution on the top event occurrence. The ranking results showed that the most effective base events in the best scenario are social failure and economic failure and in the worst case scenario are economic and social failures, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable Development
  • Fault Tree Analysis
  • Water Resources Development Plans
  • Mokran
  • VENSIM
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