کارایی مدل ترکیبی نسبت فراوانی-ماشین بردار پشتیبان در شناسایی مناطق مستعد سیل آبخیز کلات

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 استاد، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

3 دانشیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

4 استاد‌، مرکز مدل‌سازی پیشرفته و سیستم‌های اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشگاه تکنولوژی سیدنی، NSW، استرالیا

چکیده

جاری شدن سیل آثاری منفی بر محیط زیست، اقتصاد، جوامع انسانی و صنعت دارد. امروزه، کاربرد مدل‌های پیشرفتۀ سیلاب برای شناسایی مناطق حساس و بهبود سیستم مدیریت سیل رشد چشمگیری داشته است. در این میان، تعدادی از محققان با ترکیب برخی مدل‌‌ها به نتایج قابل قبولی برای شناسایی مناطق مستعد سیل دست یافتند. از آنجا که آبخیز کلات از منظر سیلاب به‌خصوص سیلاب‌های اخیر سال 1398 جزء مناطق پرخطر استان خراسان رضوی محسوب می‌شود و تا کنون نیز در آن از تکنیک‌های پیشرفته برای برآورد احتمال وقوع سیل استفاده نشده است، بنابراین مدل ترکیبی نسبت فراوانی- ماشین بردار پشتیبان FR-SVM برای مدل‌سازی سیلاب انتخاب شده و با مدل مستقل SVM مقایسه شد. پس از بررسی‌های صورت‌گرفته 73 نقطۀ سیل‌گیر ثبت شده و 15 عامل مؤثر بر وقوع سیل شامل بارش سالانه، زمین‌شناسی، کاربری اراضی/پوشش زمین، طول شیب، فاصله از رودخانه، تحلیل سایۀ پستی و بلندی‌ها، ارتفاع، شاخص همگرایی، تحدب و تعقر طولی و عرضی، شیب، شاخص قدرت جریان، شاخص زبری توپوگرافی، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی و عمق دره، در نظر گرفته شد. ارزیابی مدل‌‌ها توسط معیارهای مختلف سنجش دقت از جمله ضریب کاپا، ریشۀ میانگین مربعات خطا، منحنی مشخصۀ عملکرد سیستم و منحنی میزان پیش‌بینی، صورت گرفت. مدل FR-SVM با منحنی میزان پیش‌بینی 8862/0، دقت زیاد و کارایی بهتری را نسبت به SVM نشان داد. این نتایج می‌تواند برای مدیریت مناطق آسیب‌پذیر سیل و سایر کاربردهای منابع طبیعی استفاده شود.

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دوره 7، شماره 1
فروردین 1399
صفحه 77-95
  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 مرداد 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 بهمن 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 بهمن 1398
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 فروردین 1399
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1399