بررسی سری زمانی تغییرات دبی در حوضۀ آبخیز کرخه با استفاده از روش‌های پارامتری و ناپارامتری

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد

3 استاد گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮑﺪۀ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ، ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ، اصفهان

4 استادیار گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد

چکیده

ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات دﺑﻲ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ در ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و ﻃﺮاﺣﻲ ﺷﺒﻜه‌های آﺑﻴﺎری و زﻫﻜﺸﻲ امری ﺑﺴﻴﺎر ﻣﻬﻢ اﺳﺖ. در ‌ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ حاضر، روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات دبی ماهانه، فصلی و سالانۀ حوضۀ آبخیز کرخه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آزﻣﻮن‌های ناپارامتری من کندال، سن و تحلیل رگرسیونی ارزیابی شد. به اﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، از داده‌های دﺑﻲ در یازده اﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎه آب‌ﺳﻨﺠﻲ حوضۀ یادشده ﻃﻲ دورۀ 1990 تا 2018 استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق پیش رو نشان داد دبی ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ در همۀ این ایستگاه‌ها به‌جز سراب سید علی، روﻧﺪ ﻧﺰوﻟﻲ داشته اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ این دﺑﻲ در اﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎه‌های حمیدیه، پای پل، پل زال، پلدختر، آفرینه، چم‌انجیر، نورآباد، دوآب مرک، کاکارضا و پلچهر به‌ترتیب 48، 33، 16، 5، 15، 4، 4/0، 4/1، 6/2 و 13 مترمکعب کاهش یافته، در حالی که در ایستگاه سراب سید علی به میزان 4/0 مترمکعب افزایش یافته است. بر اساس یافته‌های تحقیق، به‌کارگیری دو روش ناپارامتری من کندال و سن در تحلیل روند سری‌های دبی ماهانه، فصلی و سالانه نشان داده است که کارایی این دو آزمون در بیشتر اوقات شبیه به هم بوده و در مواقعی که فراوانی داده‌های تکراری زیاد باشد، روش سن می‌تواند جواب واقع‌گرایانه‌تری نسبت به روش من کندال به دست دهد. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ حاضر ﻣﻲ‌تواند در ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲﻫﺎی آﺗﻲ، ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣه‌رﻳﺰی و ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑه کار رود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Time series of discharge changes in Karkheh watershed using parametric and nonparametric methods

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fahimeh Mokhtari 1
  • Afshin Honarbakhsh 2
  • Saeed Soltani 3
  • Khodayar Abdolahi 4
  • Mehdi Pajohesh 4
1 Ph.D. Watershed, Faculty of Natural Resources, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
3 Professor of Range and Watershed Management, Natural Resources Faculty, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
چکیده [English]

The study of river flow trends in water management and irrigation and water management is an important issue. In addition, monthly, seasonal and annual discharge trends of Karkheh watershed were evaluated using non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests, Sen's slope estimator and regression analysis. Inverse distance weighting method was also used to study the spatial variation of discharge trends in Karkheh watershed. Accordingly, discharge data from eleven wells of the above-mentioned basin for the period 1990 to 2018 were used. The results of this study showed that Dubai has had annual rainfall at all of these stations, except for Mir-Sayed Ali. The values ​​of this major are Hamidieh, Pai Pol, Pol Zal, Poldokhtar, Afrin, Cham Fig, Noorabad, Doab Merak, Kakarza and Pulchehr, respectively, 48, 33, 16, 5, 15, 4, 0.4, 1.4. It decreased by 2.6 and 13 cubic meters, while it increased by 0.4 cubic meters at the Sarab Ali station. Based on the findings of the study, applying nonparametric Mann-Kendall method and age in trend analysis of monthly, seasonal and annual discharge series have shown that the performance of these two tests are similar at times and when the frequency of duplicate data is high, the age method can be answered. More realistic than Mann-Kendall's approach, this approach can be applied to future water, water planning and management.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Discharge Trend
  • Man-Kendall Method
  • Age Method
  • Regression Analysis Method
  • Parametric test
  • Karkheh watershed
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