توسعه و مقایسۀ مدل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیارۀ جبرانی برای مکان‌یابی سدهای مخزنی براساس معیار‏های توسعۀ پایدار

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکدۀ پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

2 دکترای گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکدۀ پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، ایران

4 دانشجوی دکترای، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکدۀ پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

چکیده

ساخت غیراصولی سدها سبب عدم تعادل بین منابع آب و پایداری محیط می‏شود. بنابراین، در ساخت سدها به عنوان یکی از روش‏های تأمین آب، رعایت اصول و معیارهای توسعۀ پایدار اهمیت زیادی دارد. در تحقیق حاضر اولویت محل ساخت سد کندوله در استان کرمانشاه با استفاده از تکنیک‏های مختلف مدل‏ تصمیم‏گیری چندمعیارۀ جبرانی شامل وزن‏دهی ساده، برنامه‏ریزی توافقی و تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی بررسی شد. به این‏منظور، پس از تعیین معیارهای مناسب به کمک مطالعات و دیدگاه‌های کارشناسان، برای تعیین وزن معیارها از تصمیم‏گیری گروهی با اندازه‏گیری میزان توافق تصمیم‏گیران استفاده شد. سپس، چهار گزینۀ پیشنهادی برای سد کندوله بر اساس معیارهای فنی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست‌محیطی و زیرمعیارهای مربوطه رتبه‏بندی شده و نتایج با هم مقایسه شد. علاوه بر تعیین ساختگاه برتر، 17 زیرمعیار برای انتخاب این ساختگاه نیز رتبه‏بندی شد. در انتها، با آنالیز حساسیت مدل‏ها رتبه‏بندی نهایی گزینه‏ها ارزیابی شد. بر اساس دیدگاه‌های کارشناسان معیار اقتصادی بیشترین اهمیت را در انتخاب ساختگاه دارد. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد رتبه‏بندی گزینه‏ها در مدل تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی مشابه دو روش دیگر است. به این صورت که در کلیۀ مدل‏ها گزینۀ چهارم به عنوان بهترین گزینه معرفی شد و گزینه‏های سوم، اول و دوم به‌ترتیب در رتبه‏های بعدی قرار گرفتند. همچنین، نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مدل‏ها نشان داد رتبه‏بندی نهایی گزینه‏ها بر اثر تغییر وزن بیشتر معیارها تغییر نمی‏کند. تحقیق حاضر یک رویکرد معتبر و به‌صرفه برای تصمیم‏گیران به منظور شناسایی گزینۀ برتر ساختگاه سد برای رسیدن به اهداف توسعۀ پایدار را فراهم می‏سازد.

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دوره 7، شماره 3
مهر 1399
صفحه 775-790
  • تاریخ دریافت: 22 فروردین 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 27 مرداد 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 27 مرداد 1399
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 مهر 1399
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 مهر 1399