توسعه و مقایسۀ مدل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیارۀ جبرانی برای مکان‌یابی سدهای مخزنی براساس معیار‏های توسعۀ پایدار

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکدۀ پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

2 دکترای گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکدۀ پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، ایران

4 دانشجوی دکترای، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشکدۀ پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

چکیده

ساخت غیراصولی سدها سبب عدم تعادل بین منابع آب و پایداری محیط می‏شود. بنابراین، در ساخت سدها به عنوان یکی از روش‏های تأمین آب، رعایت اصول و معیارهای توسعۀ پایدار اهمیت زیادی دارد. در تحقیق حاضر اولویت محل ساخت سد کندوله در استان کرمانشاه با استفاده از تکنیک‏های مختلف مدل‏ تصمیم‏گیری چندمعیارۀ جبرانی شامل وزن‏دهی ساده، برنامه‏ریزی توافقی و تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی بررسی شد. به این‏منظور، پس از تعیین معیارهای مناسب به کمک مطالعات و دیدگاه‌های کارشناسان، برای تعیین وزن معیارها از تصمیم‏گیری گروهی با اندازه‏گیری میزان توافق تصمیم‏گیران استفاده شد. سپس، چهار گزینۀ پیشنهادی برای سد کندوله بر اساس معیارهای فنی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست‌محیطی و زیرمعیارهای مربوطه رتبه‏بندی شده و نتایج با هم مقایسه شد. علاوه بر تعیین ساختگاه برتر، 17 زیرمعیار برای انتخاب این ساختگاه نیز رتبه‏بندی شد. در انتها، با آنالیز حساسیت مدل‏ها رتبه‏بندی نهایی گزینه‏ها ارزیابی شد. بر اساس دیدگاه‌های کارشناسان معیار اقتصادی بیشترین اهمیت را در انتخاب ساختگاه دارد. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد رتبه‏بندی گزینه‏ها در مدل تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی مشابه دو روش دیگر است. به این صورت که در کلیۀ مدل‏ها گزینۀ چهارم به عنوان بهترین گزینه معرفی شد و گزینه‏های سوم، اول و دوم به‌ترتیب در رتبه‏های بعدی قرار گرفتند. همچنین، نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مدل‏ها نشان داد رتبه‏بندی نهایی گزینه‏ها بر اثر تغییر وزن بیشتر معیارها تغییر نمی‏کند. تحقیق حاضر یک رویکرد معتبر و به‌صرفه برای تصمیم‏گیران به منظور شناسایی گزینۀ برتر ساختگاه سد برای رسیدن به اهداف توسعۀ پایدار را فراهم می‏سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing and Comparing Compensatory Multi-Criteria Decision Making Models for the Reservoir-dam Site Selection Based on Sustainable Development Criteria

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib 1
  • Bahman Vaziri 2
  • Reza Hashemi 3
  • Mitra Tanhapour 4
1 Professor, Department of irrigation and drainage engineering, Aburaihan Faculty, University of Tehran, Iran
2 PhD, Department of irrigation and drainage engineering, Aburaihan Faculty, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of water engineering, Agriculture Faculty, University of Birjand, Iran
4 PhD candidate, Department of irrigation and drainage engineering, Aburaihan Faculty, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Unsustainable dam construction causes an imbalance between water resources and environmental sustainability. Thus, it is crucial to observe the principles and criteria of sustainable development in dam construction. In this study, the priority of the construction site of Kandoleh Dam in Kermanshah province was investigated using different techniques of the MCDM including simple additive weighting, compromise programming and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). For this purpose, after determining the appropriate criteria with the help of studies and experts’ opinions, group decision-making was employed to determine the weight of the criteria by measuring the decision-makers’ agreement. Then, the four proposed sites for the Kondoleh dam were ranked based on technical, economic, social, environmental criteria and relevant sub-criteria. Finally, the results were compared. In addition to determining the best site, 17 sub-criteria were also ranked for electing this site, and the sensitivity analysis of the models to evaluate the final ranking the alternatives was carried out. Based on experts’ opinions, the economic criterion was the most important in selecting a suitable site. In all models, the fourth alternative was proposed as the best alternative, and the third, first and second alternatives respectively were placed in the next ranks. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the models illustrated that final ranking of the alternatives does not change due to the variations of the criterion weights. The present study provides a valid and inexpensive approach for decision-makers to identify the best dam construction site to achieve sustainable development goals.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multi-Criteria Decision Making
  • Dam site selection
  • simple additive weighting
  • Compromise programming
  • Analytical Hierarchy process
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