ارزیابی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر نوسانات آب زیرزمینی دشت هشتگرد براساس سناریوهای RCP

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه خشکسالی و تغییر اقلیم، پژوهشکدۀ حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران

2 دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شیراز، شیراز

چکیده

‌هم‏اکنون آثار منفی تغییر اقلیم به ‏همراه بحران آب از مهم‏ترین دغدغه‏های جهانی است. پژوهش حاضر، نوعی روش کار پیشرفته برای بررسی تأثیر پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم روی نوسانات سطح آب زیرزمینی است. در تحقیق حاضر برای شبیه‏سازی سطح آب زیرزمینی و بررسی بیلان آب دشت هشتگرد از مدل مفهومی مادفلو استفاده شده است. به این منظور، هدایت هیدرولیکی در حالت ماندگار و آبدهی ویژه در حالت غیرماندگار واسنجی شد. به منظور برآورد بارندگی و دما در منطقه از مدل ترکیبی CMIP5 تحت سناریوهای RCP2.5 و RCP 8.5 استفاده شد. این داده‌‌ها توسط مدل LARS-WG طی دورۀ 2015-2040 برای منطقه ریزمقیاس‌نمایی شد. خروجی داده‏ها در مدل بارش رواناب IHACRES وارد و میزان رواناب منطقه تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم محاسبه شد. میزان نفوذ ناشی از رواناب دوباره به ‏همراه پارامترهای تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم وارد مدل مادفلو شد و مدل‏سازی انجام گرفت. مدل کمّی نشان داد که با وضعیت موجود آبخوان هشتگرد با توجه به افت سالانۀ 73 سانتی‌متری در زمان حال، این میزان افت در آینده بیشتر خواهد شد و آبخوان را از حالت بحرانی به حالت فوق‏ بحرانی تبدیل می‏کند. نتایج ‌نشان می‏دهد در سناریوی RCP8.5 ، آبخوان هشتگرد وضعیت بحرانی‏تری نسبت به سناریوی RCP2.5 خواهد داشت و افت سطح آب زیرزمینی برای بدترین حالت در منطقه در سال 2040 با فرض ثابت بودن برداشت، به‏میزان افت 18 متر نسبت به زمان حال خواهد رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Fluctuations Using RCP Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Massoud Goodarzi 1
  • Fateme Sadat Mortazavizadeh 2
1 Assistant professor, Department of Drought and climate change, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), AREEO, Tehran, Iran
2 Msc. Graduated, Water resources engineering, Water engineering Department, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz Branch, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Nowadays the negative effects of climate change along with the water crisis are the most important global challenges. This is an advanced method to study the impact of climate change on groundwater level fluctuations. In this study the conceptual Modflow model was used to simulate groundwater levels and to analysis groundwater balance of Hashtgerd plain. Hydraulic conductivity in steady state and specific yield in unsteady state were calibrated. In order to estimate rainfall and temperature in the area, the CMIP5 integrated climate model under RCP2.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used. The data for the period of 2015-2040 by LARS-WG model was downscaled. The output data in IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was entered, then the run-off under climate change was determined. The penetration rate of run-off with parameters affected by climate change entered and modeling was performed. Quantitative model showed a decrease of 73 cm in water table in the current status of the Hashtgerd aquifer. According to the witnesses, the present status would be worsened in future and will change the situation of aquifer from crisis mode to supercritical state. The predicted results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios has more critical situation than RCP2.5 scenarios and would be even worse in the region. It is predicted that the decline in groundwater level in 2040 (even if assuming a constant harvest rate) would be lowered up to of 18 meters from the comparing to the present status.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Hashtgerd Plain
  • Downscaling
  • RCP scenarios
  • IHACRES model
  • MODFLOW model
  • groundwater fluctuation
  • CMIP5
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