تأثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر میزان خسارت‌های مالی و جانی بلایای طبیعی در ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران

2 دانشیار دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران

3 کارشناس ارشد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران

چکیده

بلایای طبیعی یکی از علت‌های مهم مرگ‏ومیر انسان‏ها هستند. در این میان، سیل و زلزله بیشترین آمار خسارت‌های جانی و مالی را به خود اختصاص داده‏اند. با توجه به اینکه ایران جزء ده کشور اول حادثه‏خیز دنیا است، مطالعۀ حاضر به ارزیابی آثار متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر خسارت‌های جانی و مالی ناشی از سیل و زلزله به روش WLS طی بازۀ زمانی 1339 - 1398 در ایران پرداخته است. نتایج مطالعۀ حاضر نشان داد افزایش یک‏درصدی در متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، امید به زندگی و میزان باسوادی موجب کاهش به‌ترتیب 52/1، 26/5 و 55/10 درصدی در خسارت‌های جانی ناشی از سیل و زلزله شده است. همچنین، افزایش یک‏درصدی در متغیرهای تراکم جمعیت، میزان بیکاری، مخارج دولت در زیرساخت‏ها و باز بودن اقتصاد به‌ترتیب افزایش 64/20، 47/7، 22/4 و 86/4 درصدی خسارت‌های جانی ناشی از سیل و زلزله را به همراه دارد. از طرف دیگر، افزایش یک‏درصدی در متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، تراکم جمعیت، مخارج دولت در زیرساخت‏ها و میزان باسوادی سبب افزایش به‌ترتیب 86/1، 01/13، 81/12و 52/24 درصدی در خسارت‌های مالی ناشی از سیل و زلزله شده است. همچنین، افزایش یک‏درصدی در متغیرهای امید به زندگی و سرمایه‏گذاری در سرمایۀ فیزیکی نیز سبب کاهش به‌ترتیب 22/33 و 9/9 درصد در خسارت‌های مالی ناشی از سیل و زلزله شده است. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، از آنجا که تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی بر میزان خسارت‌های مالی و جانی ناشی از سیل و زلزله در ایران درخور توجه است، بنابراین سیاست‏گذاری اقتصادی برای کاهش آثار منفی این حوادث امری ضروری تلقی می‏شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Financial and Casualties of Natural Disasters in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samaneh Abedi 1
  • Abdolrasoul Ghasemi 2
  • Hamidreza Mortazavi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran
3 M.Sc, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran
چکیده [English]

Natural disasters are one of the most important causes of human death. Meanwhile, floods and earthquakes have the highest number of casualties and financial losses. Therefore, given that Iran is one of the top ten countries in the world, Hence, the present study evaluates the effects of macroeconomic variables on casualties and financial losses caused by floods and earthquakes by the WLS method in the period 1339-1398 in Iran. The results of this study showed that one percent increase in the variables of GDP per capita, life expectancy and literacy rate caused a decrease of 1.52, 5.26 and 10.55 percent in flood and earthquake casualties, respectively. Also, a one percent increase in the variables of population density, unemployment rate, government spending on infrastructure and openness of the economy increases by 20.64, 7.47, 4.22 and 4.86 percent, respectively, of the casualties caused by floods and earthquakes. On the other hand, a one percent increase in GDP per capita, population density, government spending on infrastructure and literacy rate caused an increase of 1.86, 13.01, 12.81 and 24.52 percent in financial losses due to floods and earthquakes, respectively. A one percent increase in the variables of life expectancy and investment in physical capital also caused a decrease of 33.22 and 9.9 percent in the financial losses caused by floods and earthquakes, respectively. Therefore, considering the results of the role of economic variables in the amount of financial and casualties caused by floods and earthquakes in Iran is significant, so economic policy to reduce the negative effects of these events is considered necessary.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flood
  • Natural disasters
  • Life expectancy index
  • literacy rate
  • Trade freedom
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