تحلیل حساسیت پارامترهای مؤثر در سیلاب طراحی با استفاده از HEC- HMS (مطالعۀ موردی: سد سردشت)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد عمران آب، شرکت توسعۀ منابع آب و نیروی ایران

2 عضو هیئت ‏علمی دانشگاه ارومیه، گروه مهندسی آب

3 دانشجوی دکترای علوم و مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تبریز و مدرس گروه عمران، مؤسسۀ آموزش عالی علم و فن ارومیه

چکیده

عوامل متعددی بر فرایند روندیابی سیلاب تأثیرگذار هستند که هریک وزن خاصی در کاهش پیک سیلاب عبوری از سرریز دارند. در تحقیق حاضر، این عوامل شناسایی شده و آنالیز حساسیت پارامترهای مؤثر بر دبی پیک طراحی مخزن سد سردشت بررسی شد. همچنین، تأثیرگذاری این عوامل و حساسیت آن‏ها در برآورد هیدروگراف تولیدی حوضه و روندیابی مخزن مشخص شد. در مرحلۀ نخست پس از ساخت مدل حوضه با تمام المان‏های مؤثر در HEC-HMS، یک رگبار بارش و رواناب متناظر شبیه‏سازی و پارامترهای مؤثر بر ایستگاه‏های مختلف واسنجی شد. در مرحلۀ دوم با تبدیل حداکثر بارش محتمل (PMP) به حداکثر سیل محتمل (PMF) در مخزن سد روندیابی شد. در مرحلۀ آخر، حساسیت پارامترهای CN، مقدار بارش طراحی، مقدار زمان تأخیر آبراهه و زمان تأخیر حوضۀ بالادست سد و پارامترهای روندیابی دبی پیک طراحی انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد سیلاب طراحی بیشترین حساسیت را به مقدار بارش طراحی دارد، به‏طوری ‏که با 30 درصد تغییر در بارش، مقادیر CN‏، زمان تأخیر آبراهه و سیلاب طراحی به‏طور خطی به‌ترتیب 40‌، 25‌ و 8 درصد تغییر می‏کند، ولی در 30‌± درصد زمان تأخیر حوضه، تغییرات سیلاب به‏طور غیرخطی 5 درصد در تخمین بالا و 16 درصد در تخمین پایین را سبب می‏شود.‏

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters Affecting the Design Flood Using HEC- HMS Mathematical Model (Case Study: Sardasht Dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Heydari Bisefr 1
  • Behzad Hessari 2
  • Morteza Samadian 3
1 MS of civil engineering, Iran Water and Power Resources Development Company (IWPCO)
2 Assistant professor of Water Engineering department of Urmia University, Iran
3 PhD Candidate in Water Resources Science and Engineering, University of Tabriz and Lecturer of Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

Several factors are affecting the flood routing process, each of which has a particular weight of attenuation of flood peaks through the spillway. This paper identifies these factors and analyzes the factors affecting the sensitivity of peak discharge estimation of Sardasht dam and the effects of these factors and their sensitivity were determined through hydrograph routing from the basin and the reservoir. At the first stage, after the construction of the basin model with full elements in Hec-Hms, one available storm event with corresponding run-off, is simulated then affecting parameters in the different sub basins were calibrated. In the second stage, the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) hyetograph converted to probable maximum flood (PMF) and routed in the reservoir. At the last stage, the sensitivity of CN, amount of rainfall design, lag time of channel and lag time of basin and also flood routing of the reservoir were investigated. The results show that the design flood is most sensitive to the amount of precipitation as with 30% change in precipitation, CN and channel lag time the flooding amount changed linearly about 40%, 25%, and 8%, respectively, but with changing ±30% of basin lag time the flood peak changed non-linearly  by 5 in over estimating and 16% in the underestimating.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall-Runoff model
  • Reservoir routing
  • Sardasht Dam
  • spillway
  • Hydrograph
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