ارزیابی آثار تغییر اقلیم و فعالیت انسانی بر منابع آب (مطالعۀ موردی: رودخانۀ کارون)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار بخش تحقیقات بیابان، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران

2 استادیار، دانشکدۀ زمین‌شناسی، پردیس علوم، دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار، دانشکدۀ عمران، دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم و فعالیت‌های انسانی، از جمله سدسازی و برداشت آب برای مصارف مختلف، دو کلیدواژه در مدیریت منابع آب هستند که به طور مستقیم بر تبادلات آب بین منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی مؤثر‌ند. تحقیق ‎حاضر به تعیین سهم تغییر اقلیم (خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی) و فعالیت‌های انسانی (سدسازی) ‏بر منابع آب رودخانۀ کارون پرداخته است. به این منظور، ‌منابع آب سطحی و آبخوان محدودۀ مطالعاتی گتوند-عقیلی برای مطالعه ‎انتخاب شد. با تجزیه‌وتحلیل ماتریس ایرانی آثار سدسازی بر منابع آب مشخص شد. نتایج نشان داد تعداد آثار میانگین جبری منفی در ستون برابر با 6 عدد و تعداد پیامدهای میانگین جبری منفی در ردیف برابر با 4 عدد است که در این بین، تعداد پیامد‌های منفی کمتر از 1/3- در ستون، به توسعۀ گردشگری و تفرج‏ مربوط می‌شود. همچنین، تعداد آثار منفی کمتر از 1/3- در ردیف، مربوط به کیفیت آب ‏رودخانه‏ است. در ادامه، به منظور تعیین سهم تغییر اقلیم در تغییرات منابع آب، شاخص‌های خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی و هیدروژئولوژیکی در دورۀ آماری 15 ساله محاسبه شدند. نتایج ‏مقایسۀ میزان هدایت الکتریکی و ‏TDS  در نقاط نمونه‌برداری‌شده ‏نشان‌دهندۀ افزایش درخور توجه بود که با نتایج ماتریس ایرانی همخوانی داشت. همچنین، با توجه به آبگیری سد گتوند علیا در سال 1390 و مقایسۀ شاخص‌های SDI و GRI نشان می‌دهد طی سال‌های 1391 تا 1394 خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی و هیدروژئولوژیکی در منطقه وجود نداشته است و بر این اساس، می‌توان بخشی از افت آبخوان را ناشی از احداث سد گتوند علیا و برداشت‌های منطقه‌ای دانست.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on Water Resources, Case Study: Karun River

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Naeimi 1
  • Samira Zandifar 1
  • Elham Fijani 2
  • Saeed Farzin 3
1 Assistant Professor, Desert Research Department, Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland, AREEO, Tehran
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Geology, University of Tehran, Tehran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan
چکیده [English]

Climate change and human activities, including dams, are keywords in water resources management that directly affect water ‎exchanges between surface and groundwater resources. The purpose of this study is to determine the ‎contribution of human activities (dam construction) and climate change (hydrological drought) ‎on the water resources of the Karun River. For this purpose, the study area of Gotvand-Aghili was selected. By analyzing ‎the Iranian matrix, the effects of dam construction on water resources were determined. ‎The results showed that there are 6 and 4 negative effects ‎in the column and row respectively. However, the matrix shows that the consequence and impact of tourism development and ‎recreational activity and surface water quality are less than -3.1. Continuously, to determine the contribution of climate change in ‎water resources, hydrological and hydrogeological drought indices were calculated over ‎an 11-year statistical period. The results of comparing the electrical conductivity in the sampled points show a significant increase that was consistent with the ‎results of the Iranian matrix. Comparison of SDI and GRI indices shows that from ‎‎2012 to 2015, there was no hydrological and hydrogeological drought in the region, ‎and based on this, part of the aquifer decline can be considered as a result of the ‎construction of the Gotvand Olya Dam. ‎

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Environmental Impact Assessment
  • climate change
  • Sustainable Development
  • dam
  • Groundwater Resources
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