مدل‌سازی بارش- رواناب در زیرحوضۀ هلیل رود به منظو ر پیش‌بینی جریان های آتی تحت شرایط اقلیمی آینده

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش ‏آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد رشتۀ مدیریت منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم با ایجاد تغییر در میزان دما و بارش موجب تغییر در دبی رودخانه‏‏ها می‏‏شود. محدودیت منابع آبی و توزیع نامتجانس آن در مناطق مختلف کشور سبب شده است که در مقایسه با بسیاری از نقاط جهان، نسبت به پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم آسیب‌پذیر‏‏تر باشد. شبیه‏‏سازی جریان رودخانه به عنوان پیش‏‏نیاز برخی از مسائل زیست‏محیطی و مهندسی ‌اهمیت دارد. در تحقیق حاضر تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر میزان رواناب سطحی حوضۀ آبخیز هلیل‏رود استان کرمان با استفاده از مدل IHACRES در دوره‏های زمانی آیندۀ نزدیک (2020-2050) و آیندۀ دور (2070-2100) پیش‏بینی شد. به این منظور، ابتدا داده‏‏های روزانۀ بارش و دما ایستگاه‏های تعیین‌شده طی دورۀ آماری 1995ـ 2017 از ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی منطقۀ مطالعه‌شده اخذ شدند. سپس، خروجی‏‏های مدل گردش عمومی جو CanESM2 تحت دو سناریوی انتشار میانه (RCP4.5) و بدبینانه (RCP8.5) با استفاده از مدل SDSM ریزمقیاس شدند. میانگین دمای ایستگاه‏ها در دو دورۀ آیندۀ نزدیک و دور به‌ترتیب 5- و 6/4- درصد کاهش و میزان بارش نزدیک 5/42 و 40 درصد افزایش نسبت به دورۀ مشاهداتی (1989-2017) نشان دادند. در گام بعدی، مقادیر پیش‏‏بینی‌شدۀ دما و بارش توسط مدل ریزمقیاس‏نمایی آماری SDSM به مدل بارش- رواناب IHACRES وارد شده و تغییرات دبی در دو دورۀ زمانی آینده پیش‏‏بینی شد. بر اساس مقادیر پیش‌بینی‌شده، متوسط دبی ماهانه در هر دو ایستگاه (کناروئیه، چشمه عروس) در ماه‏‏های گرم سال بیشترین افزایش را بر اساس پیش‏بینی‏ها نشان داد. براساس یافته‏‏های پژوهش حاضر، کاهش دما و افزایش میزان بارش طی دوره‏های آینده منجر به افزایش رواناب و شدت وقایع سیل در حوضۀ آبخیز هلیل‌رود در ماه‏های گرم سال خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling of precipitation – runoff for predicting upcoming flow streams in Halilroud basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Asiyeh Zarei 1
  • nasrin sayari 2
  • Bahram Bakhtiari 3
  • Mohammad Mehdi Ahmadi 3
1 M.S graduate, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Iran
2 Assistant Professor Dept. of Irrigation(Water Engineering Group) Faculty of Agriculture Shahid Bahonar Univ. of Kerman Kerman IRAN
3 Associate Professor of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

Climate change has an impact on discharge in rivers by changing temperature and precipitation. Iran is much more vulnerable to climate change compared to other countries because of the limit water sources and its heterogeneous distribution. Simulation of runoff play an significant role in some environmental and engineering issues. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff in Halilroud basin in Kerman using IHACRES model in two time periods (2020-2050, 2070-2100). In this respect, daily data such as rainfall, temperature from 1995 to 2017 were collected.Then, the outputs of CanESM2 model which is a general circulation model (GCM) under two middle emission scenario (RCP4.5) and pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) using SDSM model were down-scaled. The average temperature in the stations in the present and next periods decreased by 5.6 and 4.6 percent, respectively, and the precipitation in the stations increased by 42.5 percent and in the next period by 40 percent compared to the observation period (1989 - 2017). The predicted values of temperature and precipitation were entered into the IHACRES model by the SDSM climate model and then, the discharge changes were predicted in two periods of time. The average monthly discharge shows an increase in the most warm months of the year in both stations (Kenaruyeh, Cheshmeh ). The results indicated that that the reduction of the temperature and the increase of precipitation in warm months of the year lead to increase in runoff and intensity of flood events in studied area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • SDSM
  • Halil roud
  • IHACRES
  • climate change
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