شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای مؤثر بر روند دبی جریان رودخانه با استفاده از مدل بارش-رواناب HACRES در دوره‌های آتی (مطالعۀ موردی: رودخانۀ زولاچای)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه تبریز

3 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه تبریز

4 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تبریز و مدرس گروه عمران، مؤسسۀ آموزش عالی علم و فن ارومیه

چکیده

نظر به اهمیت آثار تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آبی، بررسی رفتار رودخانه به‌ویژه میزان آبدهی آن در دوره‏های آتی برای مدیریت منابع آب و ارائۀ راهکارهای سازگاری با پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم امری مفید و ضروری است. هدف از تحقیق حاضر، بررسی اثر پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم بر دبی رودخانۀ زولاچای واقع در استان آذربایجان ‏غربی است. به این منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG مقادیر بارش و دمای ایستگاه هواشناسی چهریق علیا تحت سناریوهای مختلف از سال 2021 تا سال 2080 پیش‌بینی شد. سپس، بر اساس داده‌های ریزمقیاس‌شدۀ بارش و دمای آینده، به کمک مدل بارش-رواناب IHACRES واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی‌شدۀ حجم رواناب خروجی حوضۀ آبخیز در دوره‏های آتی شبیه‌سازی شد. نتایج پیش‏بینی رواناب طی دوره‏های اقلیمی آتی نشان داد متوسط تغییرات رواناب سالانه درازمدت طی دورۀ 2021ـ 2080 به میزان 12/1 مترمکعب در ثانیه (34/33 درصد) تحت سناریوی RCP2.6، 17/1 مترمکعب در ثانیه (67/33 درصد) تحت سناریوی RCP4.5 و 37/1 مترمکعب در ثانیه (42/39 درصد) تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 نسبت به دورۀ پایه کاهش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of parameters affecting the river flow trend using the IHACRES model in future periods under the influence of climate change scenarios (Case study: Zolachai River)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Ghorbani Dailari 1
  • Sabereh Darbandi 2
  • Esmaeil Asadi 3
  • morteza samadian 4
1 1) Graduated from the University of Tabriz, Master of Science in Water Engineering
2 2) Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, University of Tabriz
3 University of Tabriz
4 3) Lecturer Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Science and Technology Urmia & member of TSAB consulting engineers
چکیده [English]

Considering the importance of the effects of climate change on water resources, it is useful and necessary to study the behavior of the river, especially its discharge in future periods, to manage water resources and provide solutions to adapt to the phenomenon of climate change. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of climate change on the discharge of the Zolachai River in West Azerbaijan Province. For this purpose, using the LARS-WG model, the precipitation and temperature values of the Upper Chehriq meteorological station under different scenarios from 2021 to 2080 were predicted. Then, based on the microscale data of future precipitation and temperature, the volume of run-off output of the basin in future periods was simulated using the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The results of runoff forecast during future climatic periods showed that the average long-term annual run-off changes during the period 2080-2021 at the rate of 1.12 cubic meters per second (33.34%) under the RCP2.6 scenario, 1.17 cubic meters per second (0.67 33%) under the RCP4.5 scenario and 1.37 cubic meters per second (39.42%) under the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the base period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall- Runoff Model
  • climate change
  • LARS-WG
  • IHACRES
  • Zolachai River
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