پیش‏ بینی میزان تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل ماهانه تحت سناریوهای RCP در دوره ‏های آتی (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضۀ آبخیز گلپایگان)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری رشتۀ علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

2 دانشیار، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی طبیعت دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد

چکیده

تبخیر و تعرق، انتقال انرژی بین سطح زمین و جو است و سازنده‏ترین مکانیسم ارتباطی بین هیدروسفر، لیتوسفر و بیوسفر محسوب می‏شود. پژوهش حاضر، روی پیش‏بینی تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل در حوضۀ آبخیز گلپایگان به‏عنوان پاسخ به تغییرات آب‌وهوایی تمرکز دارد. به این منظور، از شش الگوریتم هارگریوز– سامانی، تورنت- وایت، روماننکو، اودین، خاروفا و بلانی‏کریدل و نیز الگوریتم پنمن– مانتیث- فائو به عنوان الگوریتم‌های معیار برای برآورد تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد الگوریتم هارگریوز- سامانی در مقایسه با سایر الگوریتم‏ها، عملکرد نزدیک‏تری به الگوریتم معیار پنمن– مانتیث- فائو داشته است. بنابراین، این الگوریتم برای ارزیابی تأثیر احتمالی تغییرات آب‌وهوایی در دوره‏های آینده بر میزان تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل استفاده شد. سپس، میزان تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل با استفاده از مدل‏های گردش عمومی جو GCM برای دوره‏های آیندۀ نزدیک، میانی و دور 2021-2040، 2041-2060 و 2061-2080 تحت تأثیر سناریوهای RCP2.6,4.5,8.5 توسط مدل LARS-WG6 و با استفاده از مدل‏ اقلیمی HadGEM2-ES‏ برآورد شد. در نهایت، مقادیر تبخیر و تعرق پیش‏بینی‌شده در دوره‏های آینده با نتایج تبخیر و تعرق در دورۀ پایه (1992-2017) مقایسه شد تا تأثیر تغییرات آب‌وهوایی بر تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل بررسی شود. نتایج بیانگر افزایش تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل تحت کلیۀ سناریوهای RCP در دوره‏های آینده بود. افزایش تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در دورۀ آیندۀ نزدیک به‏ترتیب 31/6، 05/7 و 10/7 درصد؛ در دورۀ آیندۀ میانی 69/9، 84/9 و 82/11 درصد و در دورۀ آیندۀ دور، 17/8، 79/13 و 15/18 درصد به‏دست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of Monthly Potential Evapotranspiration under RCP Scenarios in Future Periods: A Case Study of Golpayegan Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Mohammadreza Mirhosiny Tabaei Zavareh 1
  • Hoda Ghasemieh 2
  • khodayar abdollahi 3
1 Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Universiy of Kashan, Kashan.
3 Assitant professor, Department of Natural Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The evapotranspiration is the transfer of energy between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere and it is the most productive mechanism of communication between the hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on predicting potential evapotranspiration in Golpayegan basin as a response to climate change. For this purpose, six algorithms including Hargreaves-Samani, Thornthwaite, Romanenko, Oudin, Kharrufa and Blaney-Criddle and also, Penman- Monteith- FAO as a standard algorithm, were used for estimating the potential evapotranspiration. The results showed that the Hargreaves-Samani algorithm performed closer to the Penman-Monteith-FAO standard algorithm compared to other algorithms. Therefore, this algorithm was used to evaluate the potential impact of climate change in future periods on the rate of potential evapotranspiration. After that, the amount of potential evapotranspiration using general circulation models (GCM) was estimated under RCP scenarios 2.6,4.5,8.5 for near, middle and far periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 by the LARS-WG6 model using the HadGEM2-ES climatic model. Finally, the predicted evapotranspiration values in future periods were compared with the evapotranspiration results in the baseline period of 1992-2017 to investigate the impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration. The results showed an increase in potential evapotranspiration under all RCP scenarios in future periods. Increase under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near future were obtained 6.31, 7.5 and 7.10 percent, In the middle future period, 9.69, 9.84 and 11.82 percent and in the distant future period, 8.17, 13.79 and 18.15 percent, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Potential evapotranspiration
  • Hargreaves- Samani
  • Golpayegan basin
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