تأثیرپذیری رژیم سیلاب از تغییرات بارش و کاربری زمین در آبخیز چشمه‌کیله

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

ارزیابی تأثیر تغییرات بارش و کاربری زمین بر سیلاب از مسائل اساسی در مدیریت آبخیز است. حال آنکه تأثیر هم‏زمان آنها کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیرپذیری سیلاب از رژیم بارش و کاربری‏های زمین در آبخیز چشمه‏کیله تنکابن صورت پذیرفته است. برای انجام پژوهش حاضر از داده‏های پنج ایستگاه هواشناسی موجود در منطقه و آب‏سنجی هرات‏بر استفاده شد. ابتدا نقشه‏های کاربری اراضی سال‏های 1984، 2001 و 2017 با استفاده از الگوریتم جنگل تصادفی در سامانۀ Earth Engine تهیه شد. سپس، برای بررسی تأثیرپذیری سیلاب نسبت به رژیم بارش از مؤلفه‏های بارش و دبی استفاده شد. به‏منظور برآورد کمّی شاخص‏های سیلابی کمینه و بیشینه و منحنی تداوم جریان از نرم‏افزار IHA 7.1 و رویکرد EFC استفاده شد. بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای رژیم بارش بر سیلاب نشان داد روند معناداری در داده‏های بارش در دورۀ آماری وجود ندارد. از طرفی، سطح کاربری جنگل در سال 2017 نسبت به سال 1984 حدود 25/21 درصد کاهش یافته، ولی کاربری‏های مرتع، کشاورزی و مناطق مسکونی به‏ترتیب 16/24، 00/315 و 47/225 درصد افزایش یافته است. درصد اختلاف شاخص‏های بیشینۀ 1، 3، 7، 30 و 90 روزه، میزان دبی و بیشینۀ سیلاب سالانه در سال 2017 نسبت به سال 1984 به‏ترتیب 17/193، 02/156، 87/124، 22/77، 93/57، 22/197 و 66/207 درصد افزایش داشته که نشان‏دهندۀ تأثیرپذیری شاخص‏های جریان سیلابی از تغییرات کاربری‏ها است. از نتایج پژوهش حاضر می‏توان نتیجه گرفت که تغییرات کاربری زمین آثار زیان‏باری بر حفاظت منابع خاک و آب و به‌طبع، بر تعادل اکولوژیک و هیدرولوژیک حوضۀ آبخیز دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impressibility of Flood Regime from Rainfall and Land Use Changes in Cheshmeh Kileh Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Nasiri Khiavi 1
  • Mehxi Vafakhah 2
  • Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi 2
1 Ph.D. Student of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University
2 خیابان حافظ-کوچه هاشمی نژاد شمالی-کوی گلشن ۴
چکیده [English]

Assessing the impact of changes in rainfall and land use on flood is a key issue in watershed management. However, their simultaneous effect has received less attention. The aim of this study was to investigate the impressibility of flood from rainfall regime and land uses in Cheshmeh Kileh Tonekabon watershed. For the present study, data from five rain gauge stations in the region and Haratbar hydrometric station were used. First, the land use map of 1984, 2001 and 2017 was prepared using a Random Forest algorithm in the Google Earth Engine. Then, rainfall and discharge components were used to investigate the impressibility of flood on the rainfall regime. In order to quantitative estimate the minimum and maximum flood indices and Flow Duration Curve, IHA 7.1 software and EFC approach were used. Investigating the effect of rainfall regime variables on flood showed that there is no significant trend in precipitation data in the statistical period. On the other hand, the area of forest lands in 2017 compared to 1984 decreased by about 21.25%, but rangeland, agricultural and residential areas increased by 24.16, 315.00 and 225.47 percent, respectively. The percentage of difference between 1, 3, 7, 30 and 90 days maximum indicators, Rising Rate and Large Flood in 2017 compared to 1984, respectively 193.17, 156.02, 124.87, 77.22, 57.93, 197.22 and 207.66 percent increased, which indicates the impressibility of flood flow indicators from land use changes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Eco-Hydrology
  • Soil and Water Conservation
  • Rainfall regime
  • Flood Indices
  • Flood Management
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