تأثیرپذیری رژیم سیلاب از تغییرات بارش و کاربری زمین در آبخیز چشمه‌کیله

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

ارزیابی تأثیر تغییرات بارش و کاربری زمین بر سیلاب از مسائل اساسی در مدیریت آبخیز است. حال آنکه تأثیر هم‏زمان آنها کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیرپذیری سیلاب از رژیم بارش و کاربری‏های زمین در آبخیز چشمه‏کیله تنکابن صورت پذیرفته است. برای انجام پژوهش حاضر از داده‏های پنج ایستگاه هواشناسی موجود در منطقه و آب‏سنجی هرات‏بر استفاده شد. ابتدا نقشه‏های کاربری اراضی سال‏های 1984، 2001 و 2017 با استفاده از الگوریتم جنگل تصادفی در سامانۀ Earth Engine تهیه شد. سپس، برای بررسی تأثیرپذیری سیلاب نسبت به رژیم بارش از مؤلفه‏های بارش و دبی استفاده شد. به‏منظور برآورد کمّی شاخص‏های سیلابی کمینه و بیشینه و منحنی تداوم جریان از نرم‏افزار IHA 7.1 و رویکرد EFC استفاده شد. بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای رژیم بارش بر سیلاب نشان داد روند معناداری در داده‏های بارش در دورۀ آماری وجود ندارد. از طرفی، سطح کاربری جنگل در سال 2017 نسبت به سال 1984 حدود 25/21 درصد کاهش یافته، ولی کاربری‏های مرتع، کشاورزی و مناطق مسکونی به‏ترتیب 16/24، 00/315 و 47/225 درصد افزایش یافته است. درصد اختلاف شاخص‏های بیشینۀ 1، 3، 7، 30 و 90 روزه، میزان دبی و بیشینۀ سیلاب سالانه در سال 2017 نسبت به سال 1984 به‏ترتیب 17/193، 02/156، 87/124، 22/77، 93/57، 22/197 و 66/207 درصد افزایش داشته که نشان‏دهندۀ تأثیرپذیری شاخص‏های جریان سیلابی از تغییرات کاربری‏ها است. از نتایج پژوهش حاضر می‏توان نتیجه گرفت که تغییرات کاربری زمین آثار زیان‏باری بر حفاظت منابع خاک و آب و به‌طبع، بر تعادل اکولوژیک و هیدرولوژیک حوضۀ آبخیز دارد.

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دوره 8، شماره 1
فروردین 1400
صفحه 221-234
  • تاریخ دریافت: 04 آبان 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 18 اسفند 1399
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1400