تعیین مناطق مستعد سیل با مدل ‏های FR، SI و Shannon به ‏منظور کاهش مخاطرات سیل (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضۀ‏آبخیز کشکان)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان

3 دانشجوی دکتری سازه ‏های آبی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان

4 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

5 کارشناس آب منطقه ‏ای لرستان و دانشجوی دکتری سازه‏ های آبی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان

چکیده

تعیین نقشۀ مناطق مستعد سیل با هدف ذخیرۀ رواناب‏ها به منظور تأمین آب مورد نیاز برای اهداف مختلف و نیز کنترل خسارت‌های ناشی از سیل، اهمیت و ضرورت زیاد این موضوع را برای حفاظت از منابع طبیعی و انسانی نشان می‏د‏هد. استان لرستان و به‏ویژه حوضۀ کشکان شامل سلسله، دلفان، دوره، خرم‏آباد، پلدختر و کوهدشت، بسیار سیل‏خیز است و بارها دچار خسار‌ت‌های ناشی از سیل شده و در فروردین 1398 بزرگ‏ترین سیل 200 سال اخیر را تجربه کرده است. در پژوهش حاضر، تلاش شده است تا نقشۀ پهنه‏بندی سیلاب به‏منظور کاهش مخاطرات سیل حوضۀ آبخیز کشکان با استفاده از مدل‏های نسبت فراوانی، شاخص آماری و آنتروپی شانون و نیز با بهره‏گیری از روش‏های مبتنی بر ArcGIS برای بهبود تصمیم‏گیری و مدیریت سیل در این منطقه ارائه شود. به این منظور، موقعیت جغرافیایی 123 نقطۀ سیل‏گیر در منطقه به دو گروه واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی تقسیم شدند. در اجرای هر سه مدل از پارامترهای مؤثر بر سیل شامل شیب، جهت شیب، انحنای زمین، زمین‏شناسی، کاربری اراضی، خاک‏شناسی، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، بارش، تراکم آبراهه، فاصله از آبراهه و مدل ارتفاعی رقومی منطقه استفاده شد. همچنین، برای اعتبارسنجی نتایج مدل‏ها از منحنی مشخصۀ عملکرد در نرم‏افزار SPSS استفاده شد. حساسیت‏سنجی پارامترها برای هر سه مدل نیز انجام شد که فاصله از رودخانه، مؤثرترین پارامتر مشترک در هر سه مدل بود. بیشترین صحت برای این منطقه به مدل آنتروپی شانون (82/0، خیلی خوب) اختصاص داشت و بعد از آن، مدل نسبت فراوانی و شاخص آماری (78/0، خوب)، مناسب این منطقه معرفی شدند. نتایج نشان داد مدل آنتروپی شانون، مساحت بیشتری از حوضه را تحت شرایط پتانسیل زیاد خطر سیل‏گیری نشان می‏دهد (حدود 40 درصد از مساحت منطقه در طبقۀ خطر سیل زیاد و خیلی زیاد) که اغلب مناطق غربی و همچنین، مناطق مرکزی حوضه را شامل می‏شوند که در کوهدشت، خرم‏آباد و پلدختر قرار دارند و باید در اولویت اول برنامه‏ریزی و مدیریت ریسک سیل در این حوضه قرار گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of Flood Prone Areas with FR, SI and Shannon Models in Order to Reduce Flood Risks (Case Study: Kashkan Watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Yousefi 1
  • Hojjatollah Younesi 2
  • Azadeh Arshia 3
  • Yazdan Yarahmadi 4
  • Ahmad Goodarzi 5
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Lorestan University, Iran
3 PhD Student in water structures, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Iran
4 PhD Student in Watershed Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan
5 PhD Student in water structures, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Iran
چکیده [English]

The mapping of flood-prone areas for the purpose of storing run-off to supply the water needed for various purposes, as well as controlling flood damage, shows the importance and necessity of this issue in order to protect natural and human resources. The Lorestan province and especially the Kashkan basin, including: Selseleh, Delfan, Doreh, Khorramabad, Poldakhtar and Kuhdasht, are very flooded and have suffered flood damages many times and in April 2019 had the biggest flood of the last 200 years. In this research, an attempt has been made to map flood zonation in order to reduce flood hazards in Kashkan watershed using frequency ratio models, statistical index and Shannon entropy and also using ArcGIS based methods to improve the decision. Provide flood control and management in this area. For this purpose, the geographical location of 123 floodplains in the region were divided into two groups: calibration and validation. In the implementation of all three models, effective parameters in floods including: slope, slope direction, land curvature, geology, land use, soil science, topographic moisture index, precipitation, waterway density, distance from waterway and digital elevation model of the region were used. The ROC curve in SPSS software was also used to validate the model results. The highest accuracy for this region was assigned to Shannon entropy model (0.82, very good) and then the frequency ratio model and statistical index (0.78, good) were introduced as suitable for this region. The results show that Shannon entropy model shows a larger area of ​​the basin under conditions of high flood risk potential (about 40% of the area in the flood risk category is high and very high) that most of the western areas as well as the central areas of the basin which are located in Kuhdasht, Khorramabad and Poldakhtar. Due to the fact that these areas were introduced to the Kashkan basin in recent studies with other methods, they were introduced as more prone.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flood map
  • FR model
  • Kashkan Basin
  • Shannon model
  • SI model
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