بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم تحت سناریوهای انتشار بر منحنی‏ های شدت ـ مدت‌ـ فراوانی بارش در ایستگاه همدید زاهدان با استفاده از تئوری فرکتال

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش ‏آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه یاسوج

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه یاسوج

3 استادیار، گروه ریاضی، دانشگاه یاسوج

چکیده

منحنی ‏های شدت‌ـ مدت‌ـ فراوانی بارش (IDF) برای برنامه‏ ریزی، طراحی و بهره‏ برداری از پروژه ‏های منابع آب یا محافظت از پروژه‏ های مختلف مهندسی در برابر سیلاب استفاده می ‏شوند. منحنی‏ هایی که از شرایط آب‌وهوایی گذشته ایجاد شده ‏اند، نمی ‏توانند برای شرایط آب‌وهوایی آینده معتبر باشند، مگر اینکه با روند اقلیمی آینده به‏روز شوند. هدف مطالعۀ حاضر، بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر منحنی ‏های IDF در ایستگاه همدید زاهدان است. ابتدا رفتار فرکتالی بارش در ایستگاه یاد شده بررسی شد که نتایج نشان داد بیشینۀ شدت بارش از رفتار منوفرکتالی تبعیت می‏ کند. خطای تئوری به روش تفاوت نسبی (RD) محاسبه شد و نتایج نشان داد خطاها در محدودۀ مجاز قرار دارند، در ادامه منحنی‏ ها برای دورۀ پایه (1982 تا 2019) و برای دورۀ بازگشت‏ های 2، 5، 10، 50، 100 و 200 سال استخراج شدند. همچنین، داده‏ های بارش آینده (2021 تا 2055) با استفاده از مدل گردش عمومی HadGEM2-ES، از سری مدل‏ های CMIP5، تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 و با استفاده از مدل ریزمقیاس‌نمایی آماری LARS-WG پیش ‏بینی شد و با استفاده از این داده‎‏ ها و به‌کارگیری تئوری فرکتال منحنی‏ های IDF برای آینده نیز استخراج شد. مقایسۀ منحنی ‏های دورۀ پایه و آینده نشان داد میانگین بیشینۀ شدت بارش ‏ها در تداوم‏ ها و دورۀ بازگشت ‏های مختلف تحت سناریوی RCP4.5 به میزان 9/22 درصد افزایش و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 به میزان 1/11 درصد ‌کاهش می‏ یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of the effect of climate change under emission scenarios on intensity-duration-frequency curves of precipitation in Zahedan Synoptic Station using Fractal theory

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hoda Bolouki 1
  • Mehdi Fazeli 2
  • Mehdi Sharifzadeh 3
1 Department of civil engineering, ّ Faculty of Engineering, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran
2 Department of Civil Engineering- Faculty of Engineering- Yasouj University- Yasouj-Iran
3 Department of mathematics, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used to plan, design and operate water resources projects or to protect various engineering projects against floods. Curves created from past climates cannot be valid for the future climates unless they are updated with future climatic trends. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of climate change on IDF curves in Zahedan Synoptic Station. First, the fractal behavior of precipitation at the station was investigated and the results showed that the maximum intensity of precipitation follows the monofractal behavior. Theoretical error was calculated by the method of relative difference (RD) and the results showed that the errors are within the allowable range, then the curves are extracted for the base period (1982 to 2019) and for the return period of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 200 years. Further, future precipitation data (2021 to 2055) were predicted using HadGEM2-ES general circulation model, from the CMIP5 series of models, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, and using LARS-WG statistical downscaling model. Based on future data, IDF curves for the future were extracted employing the fractal theory. Comparison of base and future period curves showed that the average maximum rainfall intensity in different durations and return periods increased by 22.9% under RCP4.5 scenario and decreased by 11.1% under RCP8.5 scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • LARS-WG
  • Emission scenarios
  • IDF curves
  • fractal theory
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