بررسی و تحلیل جنبه‌های مختلف آسیب‌پذیری شهری ناشی از خشک‌سالی (مطالعۀ موردی:استان تهران )

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری،گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی ‏شهری، دانشکدۀ علوم پایه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اسلام‌شهر

2 دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اسلام‌شهر

3 استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اسلام‌شهر

چکیده

در دهه‏های اخیر افزایش جمعیت، توسعۀ صنایع، رخداد خشک‏سالی و افزایش مصرف آب، موجب فشار بر منابع آب استان تهران شده ‏است. این وضعیت سبب بروز پیامدهای زیست‏محیطی و اقتصادی‌ اجتماعی فراوانی شده است. از این‏رو، هدف پژوهش حاضر، پایش خشک‏سالی و ارزیابی اثرات اقتصادی و اجتماعی آن است. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف به صورت کاربردی و از لحاظ روش، توصیفی‌ تحلیلی و به صورت پیمایشی است. برای تحلیل داده‏ها از نرم‏افزارهای SPSS، GIS و Amos استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از پردازش داده‏های بارش و تصاویر ماهواره‏ای TRMM طی دورۀ زمانی 1998ـ 2019 مشخص شد که بین فراوانی رخداد دوره‏های خشک و مرطوب در سطح استان تهران، تفاوت معنا‏داری وجود ندارد. با این‌وجود، در سال‏های انتهایی دورۀ ‌مطالعه‌شده، ناهنجاری بارش در استان تهران تمایل بیشتر به خشک‏سالی دارد و در هفت سال اخیر، سه دورۀ خشک فراگیر و نسبتاً شدید حادث شده ‏است. به ‏طور کلی، با توجه به داده‌های و اطلاعات مستخرج از پرسشنامه‏ها می‏توان گفت که پدیدۀ خشک‏سالی در تهران ابتدا موجب ایجاد تنش‏ها و آسیب‏های روانی و اجتماعی (با بیشترین بار عاملی 894/0) شده و با پیشرفت این پدیده، زمینه برای ایجاد بحران تولید و معیشت (با بار عاملی850/0) فراهم شده. متعاقب این اثرات، پدیدۀ دیگری به نام فقر و فلاکت ظاهر (با بار عاملی 698/0) و در نهایت، این عوامل زمینه‏ساز مهاجرت افراد و تغییرات ساختار جمعیتی (با بار عاملی 733/0) در مبدأ و مقصد می‏شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation and analysis of various aspects of urban vulnerability due to drought in Tehran province

نویسندگان [English]

  • vahid najafi 1
  • azadeh arbabi 2
  • fatemeh Adibi Sadinezhad 3
1 PhD Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran (Corresponding Author)
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent decades, increase of population and development of industries, the occurrence of drought and increasing water consumption has put pressure on the province's water resources. This situation has many environmental and socio-economic consequences. Therefore, the aim of present study is to monitor drought and evaluate its economic and social effects. The present research is applied terms purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms survey. The statistical population in this study includes experts and elites the study area, that finally 80 elites in the province were selected by census method. SPSS Amos and GIS software were used analyze data. Based the results obtained from the processing of precipitation data and TRMM satellite images during the period 1998-2019, it was found that there was no significant difference between frequency of occurrence drywet periods in Tehran province. However, in the last years the study period, rainfall anomalies in Tehran province are more prone to drought, and the last 7 years, three widespread and relatively severe droughts have occurred. In general, it can be said that the phenomenon of drought in Tehran first caused psychological and social tensions and injuries (with the highest factor load of 0.894) with development this phenomenon, the ground for creating a crisis production and livelihood (factor load 0.850) becomes. Following these effects, another phenomenon called poverty and misery appears (with a factor load of 0.698) and finally these factors underlie the migration of individuals and changes in population structure (with a factor load of 0.733) at the origin and destination.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Social Vulnerability
  • Factor Analysis
  • SPI Index
  • Tehran Metropolis
  • Livelihood Crisis

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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 8، شماره 4
دی 1400
صفحه 1045-1059

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 22 مهر 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 بهمن 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 بهمن 1400

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