ارزیابی وضعیت بارندگی در دوره‌های آتی ناشی از سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم در غرب حوضۀ آبخیز تالاب جازموریان

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه انرژی‏های نو و محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

2 دانشجو دکتری مهندسی سوانح، دانشکدۀ محیط زیست، دانشکدگان فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

10.22059/ije.2023.340119.1615

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر به منظور بررسی تغییرات اقلیم در حوضۀ غرب تالاب جازموریان از مدل‏ گزارش پنجم هیئت بین الدول تغییر اقلیم CanESM2 و سناریوهای جدید انتشار در آیندۀ نزدیک (2021ـ 2050) استفاده شد و به دنبال آن، به بررسی کلاس‏های شدت خشکسالی پرداخته شد. در نهایت، به منظور روشن کردن روند تغییرات سالانه مؤلفۀ بارش از آزمون غیرپارامتری من‌ـ کندال استفاده شد. نتایج مدل CanESM2 بیانگر آن است که ‌متوسط بارش در ایستگاه دلفارد و دهرود به میزان 019/0 و 036/0 درصد تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 کاهش کرده است. از طرفی، در ایستگاه کهنوج و میانده جیرفت در این سناریو، بارندگی در دورۀ آتی نسبت به دورۀ پایه به میزان 085/0 و 17/0 درصد افزایش یافته است. این تغییرات در سایر سناریوها نیز به همین شکل دارای تغییرات کاهشی و افزایشی است. نتایج روند بارندگی بیانگر آن است که در تعدادی از ایستگاه‏ها روند آن معنا‏دار و در تعدادی بدون روند که سیر نزولی یا افزایشی دارند، است. همچنین، نتایج شاخص خشکسالی SPI در سطح منطقه بیانگر افزایش خشکسالی از سمت شرایط مرطوب به سمت شرایط حادتر است. در این شاخص بیشترین فراوانی مربوط به طبقۀ نرمال است و کمترین فراوانی مربوط به طبقۀ خشکسالی بسیار شدید است، به ‏طوری که وضعیت آن در شرایط آینده حادتر است. با توجه به اینکه در بیشتر ایستگاه‏ها بارش روند کاهشی داشته و از طرفی خشکسالی در منطقۀ روند آن به صورت تشدیدی بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of rainfall status in future periods due to climate change scenarios in the west of Jazmourian Wetland watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Jahangir 1
  • Motahhare Abbasi Nodeh 2
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Candidate in Disasters Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In the present study, in order to investigate climate change in the western basin of Jazmourian Wetland, the fifth report model of the CanESM2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and new scenarios of release in the near future (2021-2050) were used. Drought severity classes were followed. Finally, Mann-Kendall no[1]n-parametric test was used to elucidate the trend of annual changes in precipitation component. The results of CanESM2 model show that the average rainfall at Delfard and Dehroud stations has decreased by 0.019 and 0.036% under RCP2.6 scenario. On the other hand, in Kahnooj and Miandeh stations of Jiroft, in this scenario, the rainfall in the next period compared to the base period has increased by 0.085 and 0.17%. These changes in other scenarios have similar decreasing and increasing changes. The results of the rainfall trend indicate that in a number of stations, the trend is significant and in some non-trendy trends that have a downward or upward trend. Also, the results of SPI drought index in the region indicate an increase in drought from humid to more acute conditions. In this index, the highest frequency is related to normal class and the lowest frequency is related to very severe drought. As its situation is more acute in the future. Due to the fact that rainfall has decreased in most stations and on the other hand, the drought in the region has been intensified.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • West Basin of Jazmourian Wetland
  • Meteorological Drought
  • Mankendal Trend Test
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