بررسی کارایی نمایه‌های خشکسالی هواشناسی در ارزیابی خشکسالی استان فارس

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران

2 دانش آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران

3 استاد گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکدۀ مهندسی آب و محیط ‌زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

10.22059/ije.2024.360578.1737

چکیده

خشکسالی بلایی طبیعی و قابل تکرار است که کلیۀ اقلیم‌ها را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. در ایران نیز خشکسالی بارها اتفاق افتاده و باعث کمبود آب در بخش‌های مختلف مصرف می‌شود. استان فارس در جنوب غربی ایران واقع است. با توجه به وجود مراکز جمعیت شهری و روستایی، صنعتی و اراضی کشاورزی بسیار در این استان، بررسی خشکسالی در این منطقه امری ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. در این تحقیق شاخص‌های خشکسالی هواشناسی عدد Z یا Score-Z، درصد نرمال بارندگی PNPI، دهک‌های بارندگی DPI، ناهنجاری بارش RAI و SPI ارزیابی و مقایسه شد. تحلیل آماری بارش ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه بیانگر ثبات بارندگی در مناطقی همچون سد درودزن و بی‌ثباتی بارش در مناطقی همچون لار و لامرد و آباده است. وضعیت بارش در استان فارس، به‌جز ایستگاه‌های شیراز، زرقان و سد درودزن، بسیار نامنظم و با تغییر‌پذیری بسیار همراه بوده، که نشان‌دهندۀ نوسان مقدار بارش در اقلیم خشک غالب استان است. به منظور انتخاب مناسب‌ترین نمایه از کمینۀ بارندگی طی دورۀ آماری و همبستگی بین نمایه‌ها استفاده شد. در ایستگاه‌های مورد بررسی به طور متوسط زوج شاخص‌های PNPI-Z ,PNPI-SPI SPI-RAI, SPI-Z RAI-Z ,PNPI-RAI از همبستگی بالایی برخوردارند. دیگر زوج شاخص‌های DPI-SPI , DPI-RAI ,DPI-Z ,DPI-PNPI همبستگی ضعیفی دارند. دوره‌های 1 و 12 ماهه به طور متوسط بالاترین ضرایب همبستگی شاخص‌ها را نشان دادند. از میان نمایه‌های ارزیابی‌شده، نمایه‌هایی مانند  PNPI ,SPI ,Z به عنوان بهترین نمایه‌ها برای پیش‌بینی خشکسالی در شرایط اقلیمی در استان فارس معرفی می‌شوند، زیرا از لحاظ توصیف وضعیت خشکسالی به خلاف RAI و DPI بهتر از دیگر نمایه‌ها در شرایط وقوع کمینۀ بارش خشکسالی‌ها را پیش‌بینی کردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of meteorological drought efficiency in assessment of drought (Case study: Fars province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Homa Razmkhah 1
  • Rouhollah Roustaie 2
  • Alimohammad Akhondali 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran
2 Graduated Student, Department of Water Engineering, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Water and Environment Engineering Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahwaz, Ahwaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is a natural disaster which could be repeated, and cause damages in all climates. In Iran, drought has occurred frequently and caused water shortages in different sectors. Fars province geographical location is in the western sought of Iran. Due to the increases cities, villages, industrial and agricultural centers in this province, drought assessment is an urgent need. In this research Z score, Percentage of Normal Precipitation Index (PNPI), Decades of Precipitation Index (DPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and standard precipitation Index (SPI) were evaluated and and compared. Statistical analysis of precipitation showed a stable condition in Doroudzan Dam station and unstable conditions in Lar, Lamerd and Abadeh. Precipitation had a wide variation except in Shiraz, Zarghan and Doroudzan Dam stations, which verifies dominant drought climates in Fars. In order to determine the best index, minimum of rainfall and indicies correlation were used in this study. Results showed that PNPI-Z ,PNPI-SPI SPI-RAI, SPI-Z RAI-Z and PNPI-RAI indices are the most correlated ones, and DPI-SPI , DPI-RAI ,DPI-Z ,DPI-PNPI indices have week correlation. 1 and 12 months average indices showed the most correlation. The results showed that the PNPI, SPI and Z coincided with the date of minimal rainfall, and reported a severe drought in the study stations, therefore they are more efficient than the other indices to determine meteorological drought.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Z-Score Index (Z score)
  • Percentage of Normal Precipitation Index (PNPI)
  • Decades of Precipitation Index (DPI)
  • Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI)
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

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اکوهیدرولوژی
دوره 10، شماره 4
دی 1402
صفحه 575-593

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 خرداد 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 02 شهریور 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 02 آبان 1402

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