1دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا دانشگاه خوارزمی
2استاد دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی
3دانشیار پژوهشکدۀ هواشناسی
چکیده
در سال‌های اخیر منابع آب بر اثر تغییر اقلیم دست‌خوش تنش‌های جدی شده است. هدف مطالعۀ حاضر، بررسی دو مدل ریز‌مقیاس‌ساز آماری و دینامیکی به‌منظور ریزمقیاسسازی بارش حدی حوضۀ آبریز گرگان‌رود در روز‌های 23 و 24 اردیبهشت 1371 است که به ثبت دبی حدی در منطقه منجر شد. در این پژوهش، از مدل آماری SDSM و مدل دینامیکی Regcm4 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل آماری SDSM قابلیت بسیار کمی (ضرایب تبیین 002/0 تا 18/0 و میانگین خطای مطلق 20 میلی‌متر) در شبیه‌سازی بارش‌های حدی دارد بهطوریکه ضرایب تبیین و همبستگی‌های کم قابل مشاهده بود؛ در صورتی که مدل Regcm4 ضرایب تبیین بسیار زیاد تا 100 درصد و میانگین خطای مطلق تا 67 میلی‌متر را ثبت کرده است به‌دلیل اینکه این مدل با در‌نظر‌گرفتن الگوهای دینامیک کلی به شبیه‌سازی بارش حدی می‌پردازد، علاوه بر اینکه با آزمون خطای طرح‌واره‌های موجود در آن می‌تواند نتایج را تا حد زیادی به داده‌های مشاهداتی منطقه نزدیک کند. تحلیل نقشه‌های هوا نشان دادند طی این دو روز نیمۀ غربی ایران و بخش‌های جنوبی و مرکزی تحت حاکمیت الگوهای کم‌فشار بوده‌اند که جهت جریانات کم‌فشار، جنوبی و غربی بوده و از سمت دریای عدن و خلیج فارس و دریای سیاه و مدیترانه هستند. نقشه‌های الگوهای ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل حاکمیت کم ارتفاع‌هایی در تراز 500 و 850 هکتوپاسکال را در منطقۀ مد نظر نمایش می‌دهد.
1PhD Candidate in Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
3Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
Water resources have experienced serious tensions in recent years due to climate change. The current study aims to investigate dynamical and statistical downscaling in order to downscale extreme precipitation in catchment of Gorganrood River over May13-14, 1992 which led to record the extreme discharge in this region. For this purpose, two models namely SDSM and Regcm4 were used. The results showed that SDSM has very low ability to simulate extreme precipitation so that the mean absolute error (MAE) was about 20 mm in the years 1983-2012 with very low coefficients of determination of 0.18 to 0.002, whereas Regcm4 model has recorded a very high coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of the model was about 67 mm. This model, however, could not well simulate Lazoreh station precipitation, because the model takes into account the overall dynamic patterns for simulation. Weather maps analysis indicates that low pressure patterns are dominant in the western half and parts of South and Central Iran in these two days. Direction of low pressure patterns is South and West from Adan sea and the Persian Gulf as well as the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Geopotential Maps show that low-height patterns are in 500 and 850 Geopotential height in this region.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
downscaling, Gorganrood River, extreme precipitation, Regcm4, SDSM
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